Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(February 17 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With Michael Saylor and Microstrategy adding $300 billion to their debt offering to buy bitcoin earlier today and Rick Reider of BlackRock (the largest asset manager in the world) saying they are “dabbling” in bitcoin, price has shot up to new all-time highs very close to our $52k target on still favorable technicals and positive price action. We can’t help but think that the steady stream of positive news regarding institutional involvement in crypto will further exacerbate the supply and demand imbalance thus pushing price past $52k before we get another legitimate pullback, hence we want to raise our price target once again.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We want to return to the 6-hour chart today where we can see that price has popped above the upper wedge trendline and closed above it, and now we’re seeing a successful retest of this line which is good news for the bulls moving forward. The still rising moving averages, the steady volume indications, and the encouraging momentum oscillators also suggest that the bias is still to the upside despite price getting close to $52k, therefore we want to raise our target as per the Fibonacci extension levels on the weekly chart below.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also zoom out to the weekly chart for a view of where the next Fibonacci targets reside and we can see that the 300% level is sitting around $52,700, which is likely the next stop before a pause/consolidation, and above there we’re looking at $56,600 where the 323.6% level lies so that’s where we’ll up the target to for now. The current bullish candle formation, rising moving averages, supportive volume indications, and intact market structure all support higher prices from here as well, although momentum remains a concern as the oscillators reenter officially overbought territory (which tells us a correction is likely before a break of $60k).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $48,000 for upside to the $56,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
We asked for a higher low above 0.0035 and it looks like the bulls have already delivered big in short order as price is rallying back up to the 0.0050 area today following a local low of 0.004365 yesterday which is turning shorter-term market structure quite bullish while the volume indications remain supportive of higher prices, hence we think that the bias is back to bullish. The rising shorter-term moving averages, the hold of the 200 SMA over the past few days, and the improving momentum oscillators are also good signs for the bulls moving forward, so we now think that a move back into the mid to high-0.0050’s is likely over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0045 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is already back above the $250 level today and has hit a new regional and cycle high of $254 on a firmly bullish daily candle formation and still intact market structure while the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, all very good news for the bulls over the coming days. The favorable volume indications are also good signs for the bulls, hence we’re expecting a move up to the $270 region in the not too distant future, however the momentum oscillators are getting back into overbought territory so there could easily be more turbulence below the 200% Fibonacci extension level at $257 before a move up towards $270.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $250 for upside to $275.
Decred (DCR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance DCR/BTC 3-day linear chart
We’ll revisit DCR this week for a view of where a pullback might materialize and where it might be down to and we can see on the BTC pair that price is approaching significant resistance at a previous regional top around 0.0030 following a steep rally on overbought momentum oscillators, so we think a correction is likely in the near future. The still lackluster A/D line isn’t helping the bulls’ case either, hence a test of sub-0.0020 levels is likely before a sustainable move above 0.0030, a dip that we would be happy buyers of if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0020 for upside to the 0.0050 area.
TradingView Binance DCR/USD 3-day linear chart
Since tagging the 278.6% Fibonacci extension level earlier this week price has been consolidating below $145 on a still fairly bullish candle formation and intact market structure while the moving averages begin to accelerate to the upside, all good news for the bulls longer-term. The volume indications are also encouraging for the bulls moving forward, however overbought momentum is a concern so there is a decent chance that we see price pullback further before new highs are made again (a dip that we would be buyers of if given the chance).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $120 for upside to the $170 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
Lastly let’s take a look at ARRR where we can see on the BTC pair that price is starting to catch a bid following a rounded bottom in the intermediate-term demand area while the momentum oscillators improve and near-term market structure becomes more bullish, no doubt good signs for the bulls moving forward. The slight improvement in the OBV reading is also encouraging for the bulls overall which is why we think the bias is shifting to the upside over the shorter-term, however the falling 50 SMA is right overhead and the longer-term moving averages are sitting just above 0.00000600 so we expect turbulence at these levels as price grinds higher.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000440 for upside to 0.00000600. Longer-term targets reside around 0.00001000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has hit new all-time highs today on another bullish candle formation that can confirm a shift to bullish longer-term market structure with a daily close above $0.244 while the 50 SMA rejoins the longer-term moving averages in an uptrend and MACD is supportive of higher prices moving forward, so the bulls certainly appear to have the upper hand for now. The lack of Fibonacci resistance until the $0.27 region is also suggestive of more near-term upside, although we do expect a buyable correction before a move into the $0.30’s.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.22 for upside to the $0.275 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!