Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Despite it being a weekend the good news for bitcoin just continues to roll in as Morgan Stanley has announced that it is considering adding crypto to one of its multi-billion dollar funds, this on the heels of news that Apple Pay is now allowing retail bitcoin payments in some form. While price action has yet to reflect these positive developments, we think this is simply due to the technicals which need a bit more recharging before taking a stab at $50k (which we think is very likely over the coming week or two).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Today we’ll take a longer-term view of the market and we’ll start with the weekly chart above where we can see that price is still trading in the OTE short zone defined by the area between the 261.8% and 278.6% Fibonacci extension levels, which comes as no surprise given our recent forecasts, however the current candle formation remains fairly bullish overall, market structure is still firmly intact, the moving averages continue to rise, and the volume indications remain encouraging. The only hiccups for the bulls right now are that momentum is getting back to officially overbought territory while MACD prints a bearish divergence so we’re expecting a more significant pullback following the next leg up to the ~$52k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD monthly log chart
We’ll also zoom out to the monthly chart for a view of where we stand in relation to the previous cycle and we can see that instead of selling off prior to the breakout like in 2017, this time around the bulls pushed price right to new highs on a bullish candle formation that is more similar to the August 2017 breakout candle than the July 2017 hammer, which is certainly good news for the bulls over the next few weeks. In fact, in August of 2017 we got almost a 100% move to the upside that month, which if replicated would put us in the $60k range. While we think this is a bit aggressive given the very stretched momentum oscillators, we do think there is a very good chance that price makes it to or extends slightly above the $52,000 price target before a correction materializes.
Longer-term, if we copy the previous cycle from bottom to top and replicate it out to the current cycle we get a target in the $418,000 region, which again we think is aggressive but something to keep in mind as this year of the bull progresses.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $45,000 for upside to the $52,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
A strong rally to the upside over the past 24 hours is capping off a very productive week for the XMR/BTC bulls that has turned the current candle formation quite bullish on a volume breakout and an improving A/D line while the momentum oscillators start to shows their first signs of life in almost two months, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that there is very little in the way of historical or technical resistance until the 0.0070 area is also a good thing for the bulls moving forward, however the falling moving averages will remain a problem over the medium-term so expect upside to be limited to those levels over the short to medium-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0040 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term targets remain around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
A beautiful breakout above the $200 level has materialized this week on a large and firmly bullish candle formation that is close to confirming a shift to bullish medium-term market structure while the moving averages pick up steam to the upside, so as long as the bulls can close the weekly candle above $200 then they are in very good shape moving forward. The still relatively favorable volume indications and supportive momentum oscillators are also positive signs for the bulls, which is why we think there is a pretty good shot at the $250 region before the bears get truly active again.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $200 for upside to $250.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
BSV/BTC is finally catching a bid following a break and close above the long-term downtrend line this week, and today the bulls are trying to tackle the still falling 50 SMA on improving market structure and favorable momentum oscillators so things are starting to look up for the bulls for the first time in a long time. The only concerns right now are the still lackluster volume indications, which will likely resolve themselves as price moves higher, and the falling 100 SMA/lower supply area overhead, both of which will cause turbulence until they are successfully cleared (which would pave the way to 0.010).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0045 for longer-term upside to the 0.0100 area.
TradingView OKex BSV/USDT daily linear chart
Next we’ll zoom out to the BSV/USDT weekly chart for a longer-term view of the market where we can see that a large and firmly bullish candle formation has taken price all the way to the top of the intermediate-term supply area this week thus quickly turning market structure more bullish while the 50 SMA reverses to join the 100 SMA in an uptrend, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The recent improvement in the volume indications and the still favorable momentum oscillators also suggest that the bulls are back in control, although we need to see a close above $260 on a daily or weekly basis in order to open the door to the $300’s.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $200 for upside to the $360 area.
Decred (DCR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance DCR/BTC weekly linear chart
DCR/BTC has been on quite a run this winter as price has moved from all-time lows below 0.0010 late last year only to recover back above 0.0020 over the past few weeks, and today price is breaking above the falling 100 SMA for the first time ever on a bullish candle formation that is confirming a shift to bullish medium-term market structure, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The improving volume indications and still favorable momentum oscillators also point to higher prices, although we’re expecting some turbulence around the 0.0030 level due to some previous highs so we expect a pause/pullback there before additional sustainable upside materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0020 for upside to 0.0030. Longer-term targets reside in the 0.0050 area.
TradingView Binance DCR/USD weekly linear chart
DCR/USD has gone absolutely ballistic over the past few months as both the breakout in BTC and the rally in DCR/BTC has pushed price well above $100 on a series of large bullish candle formations that continue to confirm bullish long-term market structure while the volume indications fully support the move, all great news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the moving averages are just now starting to pick up steam to the upside is also quite interesting for the bulls despite the magnitude of the recent run, as is the 50/100 SMA cross that is materializing this week, although given the almost fully overbought momentum oscillators we think it makes sense to take some profits in the OTE short zone between $139 – $147 if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $100 for upside to the $140 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!