Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(February 11 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
While a spate of good news involving Mastercard, BNY Mellon, Amazon, and PayPal UK sent the price of bitcoin to new all-time highs today, the breakout was unsuccessful and the market has since moved lower which tells us that the bulls aren’t yet ready to tackle the psychologically significant $50,000 level at this time. The technicals are also in need of some recharging before a sustainable leg up materializes, although we certainly think that the news today is long-term bullish therefore we continue to expect such a move in the not too distant future.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
Let’s start with another look at the 6-hour chart where we can see that price has clearly broken out of the flag/channel pattern today thus confirming that market structure is still firmly bullish while all of the moving averages continue to rise, all of which favors the bulls moving forward. The encouraging volume indications are also good for the bulls overall, however the momentum oscillators are still fairly stretched to the upside, the current candle formation has turned bearish, and price is trying to retest the top of the channel so some near-term consolidation above $45k appears likely before a real run at $50k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-day linear chart
Next we’ll zoom into the 3-day chart for the first time in a while where we can see that price is still being rejected by the OTE short zone (between the 261.8% and 278.6% Fibonacci retracement levels) despite the recent good news thus sparking a textbook doji candle that could signal an intermediate-term top, not great for the bulls moving forward. The almost overbought momentum oscillators and the bearishly divergent RSI and MACD also suggest we need to be cautious right now, however we still see no reason to change the long-term bullish outlook given the rising moving averages and very favorable volume indications and in fact we think a move up to $50k is much more likely than any kind of top in this region.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $45,000 for upside to the $52,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Despite the strength in BTC, which typically puts pressure on alts, XMR/BTC is holding up pretty well which confirms our increasingly bullish inclination, as do the recharged and reversing momentum oscillators and the improving volume indications which is why we want to continue to accumulate below 0.0040 while we have the chance. That said, the falling moving averages remain a concern so expect downside volatility as price intersects with each one of these bearish lines.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD spiked up to new regional and cycle highs today above $190, but as expected the bulls have encountered some resistance at that level which has pushed price back into the supply area and has sparked an increasingly bearish candle formation so we need to stay cautious until a close above $190 materializes. On the other hand, the rising moving averages, favorable momentum oscillators, and improving volume indications suggest that it’s only a matter of time until the $200 level is challenged and broken so we have raised our price target a bit as a result.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $170 for upside to $210.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ETH/BTC
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
While ETH/BTC has been struggling in terms of the BTC pair over the past few weeks, we see this as nothing more than a recharge at the 200 SMA before another leg to the upside materializes that will probably be the most impressive yet of this cycle. The still rising shorter-term moving averages and the still favorable volume indications support this idea from a slightly longer-term perspective, although we would not be surprised to see more consolidation around this 0.040 level while momentum recharges a bit so we’ll stay relatively patient for the time being.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.035 for longer-term upside to the 0.080 area.
ETH/USD
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD continues to get pushback from the 150% and 161.8% Fibonacci retracement area as it has for several days on a hodgepodge of candle formations and still extended momentum indications, so more of the same appears likely over the near-term. That said, the rising moving averages and very favorable A/D line are telling us that the longer-term bias remains higher so we should continue to add on dips for higher targets down the road.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1600 for upside to the $2000 area.
Yearn Finance (YFI) Technical Analysis & Outlook
YFI/BTC
TradingView Binance YFI/BTC daily linear chart
YFI/BTC has been catching a bid off of the recent local lows over the past few days and today things have really accelerated on a breakout above the 50 SMA and the shorter-term downtrend line on impressive volumes while the A/D line continues to rise and the momentum oscillators bounce with room to run, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. While we are expecting some turbulence around the 1.00 due to the 100 SMA and psychological resistance, we think this area is overcome in the not too distant future leading to prices well into the 1.00’s.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.85 for upside to the 1.50 area.
YFI/USD
TradingView Binance YFI/USDT daily linear chart
YFI/USDT has broken out to new all-time highs today on a large and fairly bullish candle formation that is close to confirming a shift to long-term bullish market structure while the moving averages continue to rise, all of which bode very well for the bulls moving forward. So do the favorable momentum and volume indications, although we need to see price close above the previous all-time high in the next few days else we’ll have to start worrying about this being a fake out with unexpected downside to come.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $40,000 for upside to the $55,000 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!