Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(February 10 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Given the forecast from a few days ago in addition to the slow news cycle since the Tesla announcement it comes as no surprise that bitcoin has pulled back from the $48,216 all-time high recently and is now consolidating in the mid-$40,000’s as the bulls rest before the next leg up. While we think this stagnant period could easily last a few days, or perhaps a bit longer, we also think that it is only a matter of time before $50k is broken to the upside hence we want to try to buy this dip if it gets down to $42k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First we want to take a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price has been moving to the downside since the $48,216 all-time high within what appears to be a bullish flag pattern while market structure remains intact, the moving averages continue to rise, and the volume indications are supportive, all good signs for the bulls overall. That said, the momentum oscillators have more recharging to do and there is more room to run inside of the channel so we’ll be patient for slightly lower prices before getting active again on the long side.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also return to the weekly chart for a view of where we stand in relation to the Fibonacci extension levels and we can see that price spiked up into the OTE short zone (between the 261.8% and 278.6% Fibs) and has since pulled back to the 250% level thus turning the current candle formation fairly bearish, not great news for the bulls over the near-term. On the other hand, we think that this lost ground will be made up before the end of the week even if price dips a bit lower over the coming days due to the still favorable volume indications so we’ll continue to buy dips into support when given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $42,000 for upside to the $52,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
In a fairly surprising move by the bulls over the past few days they have defended the bottom of the longer-term demand area and are now pushing back up towards the 0.0040 level on mostly bullish candle formations that are helping near-term market structure to improve, all good signs for the bulls moving forward. The slowly rising A/D line and the rising momentum oscillators are also positive signs for the bulls which is why we’ll begin buying below 0.0040 again for shorter-term upside to 0.0045.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has moved up into the $170’s over the past few days as expected which has turned market structure quite bullish for the time being while the 50 SMA rejoins the other moving averages in an uptrend, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The positive momentum oscillators are also bullish in nature, however the volume indications remain unimpressive and there is supply area resistance up to the $190 level so we still think that some consolidation/volatility is likely before a run at the $200 area.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $150 for upside to $200.
Bitcoin SV (SV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
The BSV/BTC bulls are so close to breaking and closing above the long-term downtrend line but have yet to actually do so despite being right on it, so we’re still neutral for the time being, although we do expect the line to be voided in the very near future so we’re starting to get a bit more bullish overall. The recharged momentum oscillators are also pointing to more bullish action in the near future, however the still lackluster volume indications and falling moving averages remain a worry so we want to see the 0.0053 level broken before getting aggressive on the long side.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0040 for upside to 0.0080.
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT daily linear chart
BSV/USDT has been hovering around the $200 level over the past few days on mixed candle formations and still uncertain market structure while the volume indications remain suboptimal, so more consolidation around current levels appears to be likely over the coming days. Having said that, the rising moving averages and encouraging momentum oscillators are telling us that another run up into the $220 – $240 area is quite possible before the week is over so we’ll buy dips below $200 if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $200 for upside to $240.
Uniswap (UNI) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance UNI/BTC daily linear chart
Finally we’ll refocus on DeFi with a look at how UNI/BTC has been performing during the recent bitcoin bull run and we can see that price has been moving lower into the upper demand area and OTE long zone where a bullish reversal candle formed yesterday that has been followed up by a rally today of almost 10%, good news for the bulls moving forward therefore a run at 0.00050 is likely over the near-term. That said, the volume indications aren’t that impressive yet and momentum needs to recharge a bit more so we’re not expecting new highs until later in the month.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00040 for longer-term upside to the 0.00080 area.
TradingView Binance UNI/USDT daily linear chart
UNI/USDT has been struggling with the 150% Fibonacci extension level over the past week and today is no different given a reject spike above there thus sparking a bearish candle formation that is keeping near-term market structure uncertain while the momentum oscillators remain extended to the upside, all suggesting more consolidation around this $20 level before another attempt at a breakout. That said, the volume indications remain very encouraging and the moving averages are still picking up steam to the upside which is why we are staying bullish over the longer-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $18 for upside to the $28 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!