Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(February 8 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
It has been a very good day in the bitcoin markets as Elon Musk came out this morning saying that Tesla has purchased $1.5 billion in BTC as a treasury asset and plans to accept it as payment for its products in the near future. The news sent price quickly to new all-time highs this morning, which is a bit quicker than we were anticipating based on the charts, and now we’re well above $45,000 on strong looking technicals so we think the path of least resistance remains generally higher over the next few days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll begin this week with a look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term setup where we can see that price has moved up to new all-time highs today on a large bullish candle formation that has reconfirmed bullish market structure while all of the moving averages continue to rise, all pointing to more upside over the coming days. The favorable volume indications and rising but not yet overbought momentum oscillators also suggest a bullish bias moving forward, although as we’ll see below we are expecting some turbulence around between $46 – $49k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next we’ll look at the weekly chart to see where the longer-term technicals stand and there is no doubt that the bulls are still in control considering the rally we’ve seen materialize today on a new but firmly bullish candle formation that has confirmed bullish long-term market structure, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The rising moving averages and encouraging volume indications are also saying that the bulls are the driver seat right now, although the momentum oscillators are overbought again and there is Fibonacci resistance overhead so we think there will be a buyable pullback before a break of $50k.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $40,000 for upside to the $48,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC is under pressure today with price falling through the 0.0040 level with relative ease on the way to new local lows around 0.0035 on a bearish candle formation that has turned already heavy market structure even more bearish near the bottom of the longer-term demand area, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The falling moving averages and discouraging volume indications are also bad signs for the bulls, which is why we’re pausing our buys in anticipation of even lower prices, however momentum is oversold so there is a little bit of hope for a double bottom here.
Trade Idea: Hold for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has found some buyers today on the back of BTC strength thus pushing the price up into the low-$160’s on a bullish candle formation that is helping shorter-term market structure improve, so the bulls have something to work with moving forward. The fact that price has been above the 50 SMA for several days now while it reverses back into an uptrend with the other longer-term moving averages is also good news for the bulls overall, so more upside to $170 appears likely in the near future, although the volume indications still aren’t that great so we expect some downside/consolidation before a run at $200.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $140 for longer-term upside to $200.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
LINK/BTC
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC daily linear chart
LINK/BTC is not looking too good right now as a sharp move lower today on a firmly bearish candle formation has turned market structure quite worrisome while the 100 SMA is broken and the 200 SMA continues to roll over, so lower prices appear likely over the coming days. The falling momentum oscillators also point to more downside given there is still room to run until they are recharged and the volume indications don’t look that great either, although we do notice a small uptick in the A/D line over the past several days so we’ll be looking for signs of accumulation as price moves down into support around the 0.00040 level (which is where we are interested in buying).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00040 for upside to 0.0010.
LINK/USD
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
LINK/USD is still struggling with resistance at the 150% Fibonacci extension level just overhead within what appears to be a bearish rising wedge pattern on a hodgepodge of candle formations and extended momentum oscillators, all suggesting that a bigger correction could be coming soon. That said, the moving averages are all rising, the volume indications are encouraging, and when ETH saw a rising wedge a few weeks ago it beat the odds and went higher so we’re still leaning slightly bullish overall.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $20 for upside to $30.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
Lastly we’ll revisit ARRR where we can see on the BTC pair above that while price hasn’t seen much upside over the past several days, it also hasn’t seen the kind of downside that many larger market cap coins are experiencing as a result of the bitcoin rally, which is a positive sign for the bulls in our opinion. The fact that the recharged and bullishly divergent momentum oscillators are starting to turn up is also good news for the bulls, as is the recent uptick in the OBV reading, so we want to continue to accumulate below 0.00000400 if given the opportunity moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000400 for upside to the 0.00001000 area.
ARRR/USD
CoinTraderPro ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has caught a bid over the past 24 hours due to the move higher in bitcoin which has sparked a firmly bullish candle formation that is tagging the falling 50 SMA while the momentum oscillators pick up steam to the upside, all of which are good signs for the bulls moving forward. The rising longer-term moving averages and the fact that price never made it to the OTE long zone (between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels) are also positive signs for the bulls overall, so we think a run at the $0.22 area is likely in the near future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.16 for upside to the $0.22 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!