Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The bitcoin markets are moving higher today despite strength in the US dollar and weakness in the precious metals complex, no doubt a good sign for the bulls moving forward. It also doesn’t hurt that long-time bitcoin bull and Ark Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood said today that she is still bullish on BTC due to positive trends in institutional interest, something that we expect to persist throughout this year. Finally, the technicals are starting to look more supportive of a move up to and potentially even above the $42,000 level in the not too distant future so we’re starting to think that the consolidation is getting close to over.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll start today’s update with a look at the 4-hour chart for a closer view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price has been rallying over the past few days following a second successful test of the broken wedge trendline thus turning near-term market structure more favorable while the 100 SMA slowly reverses to rejoin the 50 and 200 SMA’s in an uptrend, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The momentum oscillators are also rising and still have some room to run while the volume indications don’t show much selling at this point, also positive signs for the bulls, therefore a run up back into the $38,000’s appears likely in the near future.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
The daily chart remains the best view of the medium-term setup where we can see that price is moving higher today on a firmly bullish candle formation that is helping shorter-term market structure while all of the moving averages continue to move to the upside, so the path of least resistance appears to be higher over the near-term. The momentum and volume indications are also quite encouraging heading into the middle of the week, hence our bullish bias up into the high-$30k’s over the coming days, however we won’t be convinced that the consolidation is truly coming to an end until price gets back above $40,00o for more than just a few hours.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $30,000 for longer-term upside to the $46,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
We’ll zoom into the XMR/BTC 6-hour chart today for a closer look at the short-term technicals where we can see that there’s still not much happening right now considering price continues to hover just above the 0.0040 level on mixed candle formations and slightly bearish near-term market structure while the flatlining moving averages continue to follow price sideways, all suggesting more of the same over the course of this week. The momentum and volume indications also don’t look great, so perhaps we’ll get another opportunity to buy a dip in the 0.0030’s.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is approaching the $150 level again today on a bullish candle formation that is tagging the 50 SMA overhead while the longer-term averages remain supportive and continue to rise, good news for the bulls moving forward. The momentum and volume indications also appear to be improving for the time being, hence a move above $150 in the near future would not surprise us one bit, however market structure remains highly uncertain so we don’t expect the longer-term uptrend to resume just yet.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $130 for longer-term upside to $200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC is moving nicely to the upside today on a bullish candle formation following a rejected spike to the downside late last week, which is certainly good news for the bulls moving forward, as are the rising moving averages and very favorable volume indications. Intact market structure and decent looking momentum oscillators also support the bulls over the coming days, therefore we expect at least a test of the 0.045 area if not a breakout to new highs.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.040 for longer-term upside to 0.060.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has moved up to new all-time highs today on a firmly bullish candle formation that has voided the previous supply area and has confirmed bullish market structure while the moving averages all continue to accelerate to the upside, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The momentum and volume indications are also suggesting that the bulls are likely to stay in control over the coming days, however price is at the top of the still intact rising wedge which is concerning and certainly something to keep an eye on moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1400 for upside to the $1700 area.
Uniswap (UNI) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance UNI/BTC daily linear chart
Since the last time we looked at UNI/BTC it has moved all the way up into the OTE short zone (between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels) thus confirming still bullish market structure while the volume indications continue to improve, so the bulls appear to still be in control overall. Having said that, volatility has picked up in this resistance area and the momentum oscillators are overbought so we think some consolidation above 0.00050 is likely for a while before a rally into the 0.00070’s.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00050 for upside to the 0.00080 area.
TradingView Binance UNI/USDT daily linear chart
UNI/USDT briefly moved above the $20 level over the past few days but has since seen volatility pick up between the 132.6% and 150% Fibonacci extension levels while the momentum oscillators remain pinned in overbought territory, not great news for the bulls over the near-term. The distance above the moving averages and the developing rising wedge are also concerning signs for the bulls, so we think caution is warranted over the coming days, however said MA’s are still picking up steam to the upside and the volume indications remain very encouraging so we would eagerly buy any dips back down into the mid-teens.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $17 for upside to the $24 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!