(January 27 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With weakness permeating the US stock markets today and the US dollar strengthening on the back of a safe haven bid, it comes as no surprise that bitcoin has seen some selling materialize as well. Price moved down to new local lows below $30,000 earlier today where it looked like the bulls might be in trouble with a potential break of the $28,800 regional low, however the market has rebounded nicely back above $31k while stocks have continued to selloff which we think is more confirmation that we’re still in a bullish consolidation period rather than the start of something more sinister.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start off with a return to the 6-hour chart for a view of where price stands in relation to the falling wedge and we can see that we’re still well within the pattern on still bearish shorter-term market structure and mixed candle formations while the 100 SMA rolls over to join the 50 SMA in a downtrend, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the near-term. The fact that the momentum oscillators are not yet recharged is also suggesting a slight bearish bias over the remainder of the week, likely down to test the lower wedge trendline, although the bounce we’ve seen recently off of the 200 SMA is telling us to continue to buy any dips into the $20,ooo’s.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll stick with the daily chart today as it remains the best view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that price remains in the middle of the falling wedge on still fairly mixed candle formations, bearish near-term market structure, and intact longer-term structure, all suggesting more exploration inside of the wedge pattern moving forward. The not yet fully recharged momentum oscillators support the idea of more consolidation over the shorter-term, however the bounce off of the upper demand area and 50 SMA earlier today shows how eager bulls are to buy the dip which is encouraging from a longer-term perspective.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $30,000 for longer-term upside to the $46,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
We’ll zoom back into the XMR/BTC 6-hour chart today where we can see that price is still consolidating above the 0.0040 level which has become a near-term demand area while the shorter-term moving averages flatten out and begin to reverse, all fairly good signs for the bulls overall. On the other hand, the momentum oscillators remain lackluster, the volume indications are deteriorating, and the 200 SMA continues to fall so we don’t see much upside over the near-term and we actually want to be ready in case price falls back below 0.0040 (which we would be buyers of).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has fallen below $130 today on a bearish candle formation that is keeping already broken near-term market structure quite heavy while the 100 SMA is in jeopardy of being closed below in earnest, all pointing to more downside over the coming days. The still recharging momentum oscillators and the discouraging volume indications are also pretty bad signs for the bulls over the near-term, however any shot at sub-$120 prices we will jump at given the still intact longer-term potential for XMR.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $120 for longer-term upside to $200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC continues to look constructive from a technical perspective considering that price is still consolidating above the previous regional highs thus keeping market structure intact while the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, so we want to keep our bias bullish overall moving forward. The improving volume indications support the idea of more upside at some point in the not too distant future, however the lackluster momentum oscillators and the bearishly divergent MACD suggest that more consolidation below 0.045 is needed before the market is ready for that next leg up.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.040 for upside to the 0.060 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD tagged the bottom of the rising wedge today on a fairly bearish candle formation that likely to keep the pattern intact for a while longer still, all while the momentum oscillators remain stretched and bearishly divergent, so we need to stay cautious on this one over the near-term. On the other hand, all of the moving averages are still trending quickly to the upside to catch up with price while the volume indications remain very encouraging overall so we want to use this period of weakness to get active on the long side below $1000 if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1000 for upside to $1700.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
While ARRR/BTC has been performing better than WOW over the past several weeks, there still just isn’t that much to get excited about right now from a technical perspective considering that price has fully retraced back into the upper demand area on some fairy bearish candle formations that are putting pressure on market structure, not great news for the bulls moving forward. The still dropping OBV and the falling 50 SMA are also signs that the bulls need to stay cautious for now, however MACD is still flashing a bullish divergence and RSI is getting close to fully recharged again so we would view any dip below 0.00000400 as a gift longer-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000400 for upside to 0.00001000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
Despite a bounce off of the top of the adjusted demand area and the still rising 100 SMA today, market structure is looking very bearish following what was likely a distributive top in the lower part of the supply area over the past month while the 50 SMA continues to move lower and RSI continues to recharge, therefore it looks like the path of least resistance is still lower on this one overall. That said, things start to get interesting around the bottom of the upper demand area and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level below 0.12 which is where we would start to get active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.12 for upside to $0.24.
Good Luck, Good Trading!