Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As we approach the beginning of the new year the good news for bitcoin keeps rolling in, this time regarding NFL football player Russell Okung taking half of his $13 million yearly salary in bitcoin which has helped to kept a bid under the market for the past 24 hours. The similarities between the current consolidation and the previous one in the low-$20k’s also continue to mount, and the technicals are supportive of the same type of move in the not too distant future, so we still see no reason to change our call for $30 – $32k before a more significant selloff materializes, even if there are several days of choppy, sideways action before a breakout to new highs above $28,600.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
For our last update of 2020 we’ll begin with a look at the 4-hour chart for a granular view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price has rallied up to new all-time highs (ATHs) around $28,600 over the past 24 hours and is now consolidating just like it did when new marginal highs were put in just over $24,000 on December 19th, the implication being that we have at least a few more days of choppy conditions below the ATHs before a breakout up towards the $30k level occurs. With that said, we would not be surprised if this consolidation was truncated compared to the last one due to the more favorable momentum and volume indications and the swiftly rising moving averages so we’ll be ready for a move higher should it materialize before the beginning of the new year.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll return to the daily chart one last time this year where we can see that price has popped back above the 150% Fibonacci extension level today on a fairly bullish candle formation that has turned near-term market structure back to bullish for now, all good signs for additional gains moving forward. The rising moving averages and favorable volume indications also suggest that higher prices are probably before a correction, likely between $30 – $32k where the OTE short zone lies (between the 161.8% and 178.6% Fibonacci extension levels), however some more consolidation over the near-term is also a good possibility due to the extended momentum oscillators so some patience over the next day or two will be a good thing moving forward.
Trade Idea: Hold current long positions for upside to $30,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Unfortunately for the XMR/BTC bulls, price is back below 0.0060 on a bearish candle formation and very heavy near-term market structure while the 200 SMA joins the other moving averages in a downtrend and the volume indications confirm that sellers remain far more active than buyers, so we want to stay on the sidelines until some reversal signals emerge. The momentum oscillators also aren’t as healthy as we would like to see them, especially given that price is in a long-term demand area, so we think the path of least resistance over the near-term remains lower down to the 0.00535 level (which if broken likely leads to a continuation down to the 0.0045 area).
Trade Idea: Hold current long positions for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
Not too much to talk about regarding XMR/USD today as price continues to consolidate above the broken megaphone on a hodgepodge of candle formations while the momentum and volume indications remain fairly stagnant, all suggesting more of the same over the coming days. That said, the rising moving averages and favorable state of market structure are keeping us leaning bullish heading into the new year so we’re still expecting higher prices in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $150 for upside to $180.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
BSV/BTC
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
The BSV/BTC bears remain in full control of the market at this time as price has continued to steadily push down to new regional and cycle lows over the past several days on small but bearish candle formations and already firmly bearish market structure, so we still so no reason to get active on the long side in this market any time soon. The falling moving averages, very discouraging volume indications, and still intact longer-term downtrend line all confirm that the bias is still to the downside until further notice, therefore a test of the low-0.005’s appears likely in the near-future.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
BSV/USD
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT daily linear chart
BSV/USDT continues to do what it’s done for months, that is consolidating within a $150 – $200 trading range on mixed candle formations and highly uncertain market structure while the moving averages stagnate around price and the momentum oscillators show a true lack of directionality, all suggesting more consolidation within the range moving forward. The one ray of hope for the bulls that we do see is the A/D line, which remains fairly strong overall, so a push to the top of the range around $200 is not at all out of the question over the coming days, but we don’t think it will be sustainable so we’re still not interested in getting active on the long side yet.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll wrap up this final update of 2020 with a look at ARRR where we can see on the BTC pair that the recent strength in BTC has put sell pressure on this small cap alt thus sparking a breakdown out of the pennant formation last week that has been followed up by more selling down below 0.00000700, which is not great news for the bulls overall. The break of the shorter-term moving averages and the bearish state of shorter-term market structure also point to more struggles ahead for the bulls, at least over the near-term, however the still favorable OBV reading, a bottoming MACD, an almost recharged RSI, and support in the form of the rising 200 SMA and the bottom of the upper demand area around 0.00000580 all suggest that we should be buying below 0.00000600 for a reversal back to the upside early next year.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000600 for upside to the 0.00000900 area.
ARRR/USD
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC still looks pretty good overall from a technical perspective considering that market structure remains favorable in general and the moving averages all continue to rise, so we’ll stick with our longer-term upward bias heading into 2021. Having said that, the momentum oscillators still have quite a bit of recharging to do, near-term price has action been lackluster, and we’re back inside of the broken triangle again so more consolidation around the $0.20 level appears likely moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.17 for upside to $0.23.
Good Luck, Good Trading!