Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
While it may seem as though the price action in the bitcoin markets over the past 24 hours has complicated the outlook given the volatility we’ve seen, we’ve actually gotten some clarity regarding the technicals and what may lie ahead over the next few weeks. The rally up to $40k yesterday and the subsequent selloff today have confirmed that our call for some much needed consolidation between ~$30k – $40k is indeed materializing within what appears to be a symmetrical triangle that could easily run for a few more days before a resolution. This setup greatly reduces the odds of a meaningful washout below $30,000 as we had hoped might be the case earlier in the week, although we’ll be ready for that if it happens. If it doesn’t, and price continues to range for a few days inside the triangle, then we’ll expect a breakout to new all-time highs sometime early next week.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin today’s analysis with a look at the 6-hour chart where we can see that the move up to $40k yesterday and the rejection at that level created a higher low and thus a second touchpoint on the upper triangle trendline while the lower trendline has been forming for several days, thus creating the triangle we mentioned in the intro and why we’re expecting more directionless action over the next few days. The selloff back below the 50 SMA today while all of the moving averages continue to rise also suggests more consolidation in the mid-$30,000’s moving forward, although lackluster momentum oscillators and worrisome near-term market structure point to a test of the lower trendline in the $33,000’s before a legitimate bounce back to the upper trendline materializes.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll return to the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that the bulls continue to keep price well above the shorter-term uptrend line despite a mixed bag of candle formations and heavy near-term market structure, which is certainly good news for the bulls moving forward. The still rising moving averages, favorable volume indications, and bullish longer-term market structure also point to a breakout to the upside once this consolidation has run its course, however the momentum oscillators are still recharging so another tag of the trendline in this $32 – $33k region is certainly possible as the market rests for the next few days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $32,000 for upside to the $40,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC is heading back down to the 0.0040 level following a rejection at 0.0050 over the course of this week, and more downside appears likely over the near-term given the current state of the momentum and volume indications. The falling moving averages also aren’t helping matters for the bulls, therefore we expect to get a shot to buy below 0.0040 in the near future, although we need to see the 0.0034 level ultimately hold for a double bottom before getting too aggressive on the long side.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has been moving to the downside over the past few days, tagging the still rising 50 SMA today which has provided support while the momentum and volume indications remain fairly stagnant, all confirming our still intact forecast for more choppy consolidation in the $140 – $170 area over the upcoming holiday weekend. That said the rising longer-term moving averages and the bullish state of market structure suggest that we should keep our longer-term upward bias intact moving forward so that’s what we’ll do until further notice.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $150 for longer-term upside to $200.
Bitcoin SV (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
BSV/BTC
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
Today we’ll refocus on BSV/BTC where we can see that price is consolidating within a very tight range that appears to be a bullish pennant-type formation while exchange volumes remain elevated and the momentum oscillators are neutral, so perhaps there is a very slight bullish bias over the near-term. That said, this is not the first time that the bulls have gotten their hopes up only to see them dashed at the downtrend line, which in conjunction with the falling moving averages and discouraging A/D line make us think that this will happen yet again. Point being, we have to remain neutral on this one until the trendline is broken and closed above so we’ll stay patient and watchful moving forward.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
BSV/USD
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT daily linear chart
BSV/USDT remains a mess overall considering that price is still consolidating around the $200 level on still very uncertain market structure, mixed momentum oscillators, and some bearish volume signals, so more directionless chop appears likely over the shorter-term. The hodgepodge of candle formations recently also points to more consolidation over the near-term, however the fact that price is still above the moving averages, which are beginning to pick up some steam to the upside, is a good sign for the bulls longer-term so we’ll maintain a very slight bullish bias in general until further notice.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $200 for upside to $300.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
LINK/BTC
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC daily linear chart
After several weeks of consolidation in the longer-term demand area, LINK/BTC has broken out from its shorter-term trading range to the upside on a firmly bullish candle formation that has shifted near-term market structure back to the bulls, good news for more upside moving forward. The tick higher in the A/D line and the spike in exchange volumes today also suggest that the bulls are likely regaining control of the market right now, as do the favorable momentum oscillators, so we’re leaning towards the upside over the near-term. That said, we’re also skeptical regarding sustainability due to the falling moving averages and a meaningful supply area overhead, therefore we would not be surprised to see a top around/below the 0.00070 level which would set the stage for a retest of the lows and a potentially very bullish double bottom below 0.00050.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00050 for longer-term upside to 0.00120.
LINK/USD
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
Lastly we’ll look at LINK/USD where we can see that price has shot up to a new all-time high today well above $20 on favorable volume indications and rising moving averages, so things are looking pretty good for the bulls for the time being. Having said that, we’d like to see a close above the top of the supply area today which would confirm a shift to bullish longer-term market structure while keeping the current candle formation from deteriorating further (which could signal a failed breakout if it closes below $20), therefore we’ll wait to see what happens over the next 24 hours before calling for price discovery mode on this one.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $18 for upside to $22.
Good Luck, Good Trading!