Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 8 -2023)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As the darkness of winter fades and Spring approaches there are many green shoots for the longer-term outlook for the crypto markets given the beginning of the bullish part of a new halving cycle, however the short to intermediate-term outlook is much muddier and hard-to-decipher directionally. For the time being, it looks like more weakness is likely over the next week or two, however we continue to believe that the first great buying opportunity of the new cycle is close to presenting itself so we’ll stay patient for the levels that we’ve been discussing for weeks (if not months).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
First, we’ll take a look at the daily chart for a view of the short to medium-term setup where we can see that price continues to grind lower on red SCMR signals, bearish candle formations, and a red TD count that has yet to complete, all of which is bad news for the bulls over the coming days. The still active red SCMR resistance dots at $22.6k, bearish short-term market structure, and deteriorating momentum and volume indications are also bad news for the bulls heading into the back half of the week, however we do have a bullish MACD divergence and there are only two more days until a potential daily TD 9 buy signal therefore we’ll stick with our intermediate-term buy levels of $21.3k and $20k.
Intermediate-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $21.3k for medium-term upside to $24k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next let’s look at the weekly chart to see where the longer-term technicals stand and for now the forecast remains murky as we have another orange SCMR pivot bar on a small but bearish candle formation that is still below the falling 50 SMA while the 100 SMA declines as well, all suggesting that the bears continue to have the upper hand over the short-term. The lackluster momentum and volume indications are not helping matters for the bulls either, hence our call for lower prices over the next few weeks, however a green TD 1 this week and a still rising 200 SMA are both suggesting that this correction is likely close to over therefore buying the next dip or two makes sense longer-term.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $20k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC is starting to look very interesting in terms of a potential bottom given that a weekly TD 9 buy signal is developing right along the intermediate-term uptrend line while the 100 SMA continues to rise as support and the volume indications remain quite encouraging. The almost recharged momentum oscillators and still bullish medium-term market structure are also positives for the bulls moving forward, however still red SCMR signals, a bearish candle formation this week, and a daily TD 9 sell signal (not shown) are keeping us cautious over the shorter-term hence we’ll wait for sub-0.0060 levels to add to positions given we already bought at 0.0069.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for a medium-term target of 0.0105 and a longer-term target of 0.0200.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD continues to consolidate around the $150 level on a hodgepodge of candle formations and SCMR signals and a very mixed TD count while the moving averages flatline and the momentum and volume indications remain lackluster, all suggesting that more sideways action between $140 – $150 is likely over the shorter-term. Having said that, if BTC/USD indeed moves down to new lows over the coming days then there will be downward pressure on XMR therefore we’ll keep bids in the $130 – $135 region in case of a final washout lower before a sustainable bottom materializes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $135 with a medium-term target of $200 and a longer-term target of $2000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ETH/BTC
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
The buoyancy of the ETH/BTC market recently has been something to behold given multiple fundamental overhangs and technicals that are teetering on the brink of disaster, which is a testament to the level of demand that the NFT marketplaces continue to generate. That aside, we can see that price has popped up just a bit resulting in a green TD 1 and a neutral SCMR signal while the moving averages continue to rise and provide support, market structure slowly improves, and the volume indications remain highly encouraging, mostly good news for the bulls. While we continue to have bids at lower levels in case a breakdown materializes, we are feeling better about our sub-0.070 buys from a few weeks ago as the odds of a rally slowly increase.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below 0.070 for medium-term upside to the 0.080 region and longer-term upside to 0.100.
ETH/USD
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is grinding slowly to the downside in conjunction with BTC on red SCMR signals, bearish candle formations, and a still firmly bearish TD count (6) while price is below the now falling 50 SMA and market structure continues to deteriorate, all of which points to lower prices over the short-term. The unimpressive momentum and volume indications and a lack of historical or technical support below the market is also a sign of lower prices over the coming days, likely down into our buy zone in the mid-$1400s (at least).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1450 for medium-term upside to the $1700 area and longer-term upside to the $10k area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
DERO/BTC
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC weekly linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to look fairly weak from a technical perspective considering that SCMR signals are still red, candle formations are textbook bearish dojis, and the TD count remains red (7) all while the 50 SMA continues to fall overhead, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the next few weeks. The still falling momentum indicators and a very negative money flow are also suggesting that the bears are still in control for now, however we would love to be buyers of the final flush lower down to the 0.00016 area so we’ll stay patient for the next shoe to drop before buying.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below 0.00016 for medium-term upside to 0.00035 and longer-term upside to the 0.00100 area.
DERO/USD
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT looks pretty bad technically given still red SCMR signals, bearish candle formations, a red TD count (7), and still bearish market structure all while the 50 SMA moves down and multiple areas of TD and SCMR resistance actively build overhead. RSI, Money Flow, and OBV are also suggesting that lower prices are likely before a sustainable reversal, however a MACD divergence will help the bulls once we get to support below $4 which is where we’ll begin to buy again as well.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below $4 for intermediate-term upside to the $5 area. Longer-term target remains around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!