Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Feb 14th – 2023)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
This Valentine’s Day the crypto markets are not as sweet as they were earlier in the year, however they are following the roadmap that we have been laying out over the past few weeks which means the technicals are still in control. A nice bounce today despite weakness in traditional markets is a good sign that we are still in the early stages of a new longer-term bull market, however the shorter-term outlook is less certain given some conflicting technical signals and the persistent threat of headline risk related to regulation. Having said that, we continue to want to buy dips into key support zones in order to compound gains once the bull market truly resumes again.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the daily chart for a view of the short to medium-term setup where we can see that price bounced off of a TD 9 buy signal yesterday which is being followed up by a blue SCMR reversal candle while all of the moving averages remain in a bullish stance, all of which is good news for the bulls over the next few days. The almost recharged momentum oscillators and the still decent looking volume indications are also good signs for the bulls, hence a continuation up to the $22.6k region is certainly possible before another leg down. That said, we do think the market is susceptible to one more downdraft into the $20k’s before a sustainable bottom is established so we’re staying cautious on this current bounce.
Intermediate-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $20.6k for medium-term upside to $25k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also take a look a the weekly chart for a slightly longer-term view of the market where we can see that a red TD (1) signal has developed following the rounded-top at $24k over the past several weeks which is certainly not great news for the bulls over the shorter-term, however SCMR candles remain green for now, the momentum and volume indications still look pretty good overall, and market structure will drastically improve after a higher low is established over the next few weeks, therefore we want to be buyers of any pullbacks close to or below the psychologically significant $20k level.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $20k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC remains under selling pressure in general as the weekly TD count remains bearish (6) and the SCMR signals are still red, however the bulls are trying to establish a low around 0.0070 which is just above the now confirmed Golden Cross and close to the buy confluence at the trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level so the bulls do have something to work with. The volume indications also remain fairly encouraging overall, however the momentum oscillators could use some more recharging and the TD count still has a ways to go so we think we’ll have at least a few more chances to accumulate below 0.0070 over the next few weeks.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0070 for a medium-term target of 0.0105 and a longer-term target of 0.0200.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is holding up in the $150’s for the time being due to the rising 100 and 200 SMAs below the market, and we also see multiple blue SCMR reversal signals over the past several days which is good news for the bulls over the short-term, however market structure remains a concern, price is below the 50 SMA, and the momentum and volume indications leave much to be desired so we think there is likely more downside before a sustainable bottom is put in. That said, downside is relatively limited to the upper demand area and the top of the OTE long zone so we’ll add to positions down near the $140 level if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $145 with a longer-term target of $2000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
ETH/BTC is still hanging onto the rising 100 SMA by a thread on a hodgepodge of SCMR signals, mixed candle formations, and highly uncertain market structure, so perhaps the sideways consolidation around 0.070 can continue for a while longer, however the bearish TD count (5), the lackluster momentum oscillators, and the flatlined 50 SMA overhead all suggest that a move lower is likely before the long-term bull market resumes. Given that the top of the demand area below the market coincides with the OTE long zone around 0.060 we think this is a very attractive zone to buy for the short and long-term, therefore we’ll be getting active there if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below 0.065 for longer-term upside to the 0.100 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart
ETH/USD continues to look toppy considering that the TD count has gone red (2), the orange SCMR pivot bar from last week is being followed up by a neutral doji, and the momentum oscillators have yet to recharge at all, therefore we’re still leaning slightly bearish over the shorter-term. Having said that, favorable volume indications, improving market structure, and a still rising 200 SMA all suggest that dips should be bought for the impending bull market so we’ll be buyers of anything below $1400.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1400 for longer-term upside to the $10k area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC weekly linear chart
DERO/BTC is still grinding slowly to the downside on a red TD count (4), red SCMR signals, and small but bearish candle formations while new SCMR resistance dots begin to form overhead, not good news at all for the bulls moving forward. The falling 50 SMA, the still recharging momentum oscillators, and the atrocious looking volume indications also point to a bearish bias over the short to medium-term, however support zones at 0.00018 and 0.00015 are both highly attractive longer-term accumulation areas so we’ll be watching those zone closely over the coming days and weeks.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below 0.00018 for longer-term upside to the 0.00100 area.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT weekly linear chart
DERO/USDT is also bleeding slowly to the downside on a now bearish TD count (2) and discouraging SCMR signals while the 50 SMA follows price lower, all suggesting that the bears are still in control for the time being. The still recharging momentum oscillators and the extremely bearish volume indications are also bad news for the bulls moving forward, although the top of the demand area around $4 is still a buy level for us for the longer-term so we’ll stick to the plan for now.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below $4 for intermediate-term upside to the $6 area. Longer-term target remains around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!