Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(November 15 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
While the past week has been one of the most tumultuous and trying times ever for the crypto community in its relatively short 13-year history, price action on most of the major coins has been fairly resilient, all things considered. We think this is a tell-tale sign that true believers are not losing faith, and the exchange exodus shows the community getting back to basics, both of which are very bullish from a longer-term perspective. Having said that, the shorter-term outlook remains fairly grim with the technicals pointing to more downside therefore we’ll stay patient and neutral for now but ready to strike on the next drop.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the daily chart for a view of the short to medium-term setup where we can see that price is trying to form a bottom in the $16k area despite red SCMR signals, a mixed but still bearish TD count, and falling moving averages overhead, so it remains a coin flip if the lows can hold. It’s also not great that we don’t have any bullish divergences yet, however momentum is recharged and OBV shows buyers stepping up over the past few days, so if we do get a rally over the coming days like Mr. A noted in yesterday’s CMU video, then there is room up to the $19k area making for a nice sellable rally before more downside materializes.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We also want to look at the weekly chart for a longer-term view of the technicals where we can see that a doji candle is forming near the bottom of the demand area on a red SCMR signal and red TD count, bad news for the bulls to be sure. New SCMR resistance dots overhead, a newly bearish 100 SMA, and still lackluster momentum and volume indications also suggest that the bears are still in control for now, so we’ll save dry powder for the $12-$14k potential bottom range that we have been talking about for months in case it happens
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $16k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC is starting to look very interesting from a weekly point of view considering that price broke above the symmetrical triangle/bull pennant last week on a green SCMR signal and fresh TD 1, and this week the trendline is being successfully backtested on a green SCMR signal and green TD 2, all of which points to more upside. The recent hold of the 200 SMA, the reversal of the 100 SMA, and a trending 50 SMA are also good signs for the bulls, as is RSI, so we continue to think that a move above 0.0080 is likely before a buyable pullback materializes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for a longer-term target around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD is trading just above the $125 level that has been of interest to us for some time, but on a red SCMR signal, doji candle, and red TD 2 so it appears as though lower prices are probable for the time being. The red SCMR dots overhead, the break of the 200 SMA last week, and lackluster momentum oscillators also suggest lower prices before all is said and done, however if BTC/USD bounces to $19k then XMR will likely get a sellable move up to the $140 area.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $120 with a longer-term target of $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
Despite all the FTX drama, ETH/BTC continues to perform admirably moving swiftly back above the 0.070 level after a brief dip down to the mid-0.060’s late last week thus creating a fairly bullish candle formation and keeping the SCMR signal green and the TD count bullish, what should be good news for the bulls. However this week we have a doji candle following a lower high with little in the way of short-term support below the market, so perhaps we’ll finally get our shot to buy the 0.060 (or below) area before a breakout back above 0.080.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.062 for longer-term upside to the 0.100 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart
ETH/USD looks pretty bad from a weekly perspective considering that price has broken below the 200 SMA on a red SCMR signal and red TD 2 while market structure remains atrocious and SCMR resistance builds overhead, all of which suggests lower prices over the shorter-term. Lackluster momentum and volume indications support this view, however we still like the $1000 demand zone to add to long-term positions.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1100 for longer-term upside to the $10k area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC weekly linear chart
DERO/BTC has been the quiet star during all of this chaos surrounding FTX with prices moving steadily higher over the past two months on bullish candle formations, green SCMR signals, a bullish TD count, and very encouraging market structure. The fact that price is back above all of the moving averages while most of the momentum and volume indications remain favorable is also a good sign for the bulls, however price is flirting with the OTE short zone while money flow stays highly negative and we get closer to a TD 9 therefore we would be taking some off the table in the 0.00030 area in order to buy a pullback closer to support in the 0.00020 zone.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below 0.00020 for longer-term upside to the 0.00100 area.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT weekly linear chart
DERO/USD is back to trading around the $4 level this week as two orange bearish SCMR pivots have formed following a swing failure top a few weeks ago, not great news for the bulls shorter-term, and neither is the falling 50 SMA or the active TD resistance overhead. Deteriorating volume indications and lackluster momentum oscillators are not helping matters, however hopefully these bearish technicals give us an opportunity to load up more for the long-term around the very attractive $3 level.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below $3.80 for upside to the $15 area. Longer-term target remains around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!