Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(October 7 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Over the past few weeks BTC has continued to chop around on either side of the $20k level, which comes as no surprise given the mixed spate of news we’ve gotten recently combined with still negative global macro conditions. Actually, the fact that BTC is still trading well above the June lows is quite impressive, although a restrengthening dollar, rising rates, and falling equities into week’s end all spell trouble for risk assets over the course of this month. For this reason, along with cycle dynamics, we continue to think that the path of least resistance is down into the November 6th projected cycle low date, so we’ll stay patient for lower prices before getting active on the long side.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll start with a look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technical setup where we can see that price is trading inside of a large, well-defined descending triangle, which is a bearish formation, and now we see a rejection at the 50 SMA with a bearish orange SCMR pivot bar today and a fresh red (1) on the TD count, all confirming our view that price is likely to move lower over the shorter-term. The falling longer-term moving averages and lackluster momentum and volume indications also suggest a bearish bias over the coming weeks, although there is still fairly strong support in the low to mid-$18k’s which is where we’ll be watching for signs of bullish activity.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We also want to look at the weekly chart to see where the longer-term technicals stand and for now price remains in the lower half of what appears to be a bearish channel/flag pattern while candle formations remain discouraging and new SCMR resistance builds overhead around $20.5k, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. It also doesn’t help that price is still below the 200 SMA with a 100 SMA that is about to join the 50 SMA in a downtrend while the momentum and volume indications leave much to be desired, all pointing to a downward bias from current prices through the end of the month.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $18k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to tread water around the still-falling 200 SMA this week on another bearish doji candle within a bullish pennant pattern while the TD count remains mixed and ineffective, all suggesting more sideways chop over the shorter-term. The flatlined momentum and volume indications also point to more consolidation around current levels, although the global macro environment is keeping the ball in the bears’ court so we are staying prepared to buy blood around and/or below the 0.0065 level.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0065 for a longer-term target around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is still consolidating around the converging shorter-term moving averages on mixed candle formations and SCMR signals, a bullish but rather unhelpful TD count, and flatlined momentum and volume indications, all pointing to more of the same moving forward. That said, the falling 200 SMA overhead, a lack of support until the $125 area, and our bearish BTC/USD thesis all suggest a break out of the range to the downside within the next ~4 weeks.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $130 with a longer-term target of $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
ETH/BTC has been moving to the downside in rather orderly fashion this week on mostly bearish candle formations, a still red TD count (4), and heavy market structure, so we’re sticking to our call for lower prices over the coming weeks. The fact that price is below the 50 SMA while the momentum oscillators continue to recharge is also a sign that the bears are still in control for now, however the volume indications show that we should be buying dips into key supports for longer-term holding so we’ll look to get long in the confluence area in the low 0.060’s
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.064 for longer-term upside to the 0.100 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart
ETH/USD continues to trade around the rising 200 SMA on bearish candle formations and SCMR signals, a still red TD count (7), terrible-looking market structure, and a falling 50 SMA, all suggesting downward pressure on price over the shorter-term. The deteriorating momentum and volume indications also point to lower prices over the coming weeks, although strong support in the $900 – $1100 looks very attractive for long-term buys.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1100 for longer-term upside to the $10k area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC weekly linear chart
DERO/BTC had a very good week relative to pretty much any other market with price rising well above the 0.00020 level on a green weekly SCMR signal, bullish candle formation that is above the 100 SMA, and a newly bullish TD count, all of which is very positive for the bulls moving forward. Improving momentum conditions also show the possibility for outperformance for the foreseeable future, although shorter-term resistance in the 0.00022 – 0.00024 region is likely to cause a pause/pullback soon that we hope to take advantage of on the long side if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.00018 for longer-term upside to the 0.00100 area.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT has been moving to the upside recently after carving out a rounded bottom below $4 on very nice market structure, green SCMR signals, and a bullish TD count while the shorter-term SMA’s start to reverse to the upside, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The volume indications are also improving rapidly, also a good sign for the bulls overall, however price is at shorter-term resistance while momentum is close to overbought so we’re looking for a buyable pullback down to the $3.75 area in the not-too-distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $3.80 for longer-term upside to the $100 region.
Good Luck, Good Trading!