Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Less than a week before Autumn begins and the financial markets have turned quite gloomy, including crypto which has seen prices decline well over 10% generally over the past few days on global macro worries and regulation fears. The technicals also remain quite concerning, the 60-day cycle notwithstanding, which is adding to the selling pressure heading into the weekend. While we continue to think that a 4-year cycle low is approaching in the next couple of months, the near-term path of least resistance remains to the downside until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First let’s take a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the short-term technical setup where we can see that price has been moving methodically lower this week within a well-defined descending channel that is getting close to breaking below the OTE long zone on still bearish SCMR signals and a still red TD count, all bad news for the bulls over the near-term. Active SCMR resistance dots overhead, falling moving averages, and very discouraging momentum and volume indications also suggest that the bears are fully in control for now, hence we’ll stay neutral and patient until lower levels are reached.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand heading into the upcoming weekend and while things certainly look bad from a short-term perspective, such as red SCMR signals, bearish TD count, falling moving averages, and lackluster momentum and volume indications, price is still stuck in a multi-month trading range that remains valid until further notice. Granted, the odds of a breakdown below the $17.5 lows are increasing with each passing day, however a bounce is likely warranted in the low to mid-$18k’s back up towards $20k (which we would sell into) before the real panic move lower begins thereafter.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $16k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
After holding the rising 50 SMA earlier this week, XMR/BTC is now retesting the upper wedge trendline yet again on a new bullish TD count, intact market structure, and a potential SCMR reversal signal, all pretty good news for the bulls moving forward. The rising longer-term moving averages, the very positive volume indications, and the partially recharged momentum oscillators should also keep the bulls in business over the shorter-term, however another failure to break 0.0080 over the next several days will likely lead to the bigger selloff that we have been waiting for for quite some time.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0070 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0080 area. The longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is moving towards the bottom of the intermediate-term trading range on a bearish TD count and very mixed market structure while momentum continues to recharge and volumes remain decent, all suggesting that the range is likely to remain intact for the time being. Having said that, the 50 SMA has rolled over to rejoin the 100 and 200 SMA’s in a downtrend while near-term support below $140 remains very thin, therefore we want to be prepared for a quick downdraft into the $120s in case BTC begins to truly crash in the near future.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $130 with a medium-term target of $200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC continues to move lower as expected on another red SCMR signal and bearish candle formation that is very close to breaking market structure while the TD count remains red, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the shorter-term. The break of the 50 SMA, the deteriorating volume indications, and the still recharging momentum oscillators also point to a rough environment for the bulls over the coming days, however the 0.069 confluence area remains intriguing in terms of buying the dip so we’ll nibble some small longs around that level if given the opportunity this weekend.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.069 for shorter-term upside to 0.080 and longer-term upside to the 0.100 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has broken below the 100 SMA today on a bearish candle formation and a red SCMR signal while the TD count remains firmly bearish and SCMR resistance remains active overhead, all suggesting lower prices in the near future. The fact that the 50 SMA has rolled over while the momentum and volume indications remain quite discouraging also points to a heavy market moving forward, although $1300 does remain an interesting support area so we’ll watch for signs of a reaction there in order to perhaps start to get long again in that region.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1300 for shorter-term upside to the $1600 area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to retrace the spike higher from last weekend on bearish candle formations and a red TD count while money flow goes highly negative and the momentum oscillators still have room to recharge, all pointing to lower prices over the coming days. That said, SCMR signals have yet to turn bearish and support is quite strong around and just below 0.00018 so that is where we’ll try to nibble some longs for a bounce back above 0.00020. NOTE: If the bulls cannot defend the 0.000175 level then much lower prices are likely therefore we will step aside should that level be broken.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.00018 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00020 area.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT is breaking below the shorter-term moving averages today, both of which are now moving lower, on bearish candle formations and a red TD count following a bearish SCMR orange pivot a few days ago while the volume indications remain abysmal and the momentum oscillators continue to recharge, so it certainly looks like the bears are in control for now. Having said that, support in the $3.30 area is quite strong therefore we’ll start to get interested on the long side there given a decent reaction by the bulls.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $3.30 for shorter-term upside to the $4.50 region.
Good Luck, Good Trading!