Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(August 29 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As newsflow slows and liquidity dries up heading into the long holiday weekend in North America, crypto prices continue to behave as expected in the past few TCV CMU Videos with BTC now back above $20k following a probe down to the mid-$19k’s overnight. While this mini-bounce may have some life left in it yet, we continue to think that the bias is generally to the downside moving forward and that we’re likely to test sub-$19k levels over the next few weeks.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
Let’s start with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price has temporarily reversed back to the upside on an unsustainable yellow breakout candle and bullish candle formation following new lows and persistent bearish market structure, all suggesting that this is likely to be a brief countertrend bounce to the upside before lower prices are explored. Quite bearish momentum and volume indications also point to a downward bias over the shorter-term, at least down to the TD risk line around $19.3k, with any pops to the $21k area this week being sell opportunities over the near-term in our opinion.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand heading into the low-liquidity holiday and while the bullish engulfing candle formation today is somewhat encouraging, it is coming on a red SCMR candle, a red TD (4) count, and bearish market structure while the 50 SMA joins the longer-term moving averages in a downtrend, certainly not good news for the bulls moving forward. Lackluster momentum and volume indications are confirming that the bears are in control for now, so we’ll stay patient for lower prices before trying to get tactically long once again.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $19k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
With XMR/BTC currently breaking out of the rising wedge formation today on a bullish candle formation we want to zoom out to see where we may be heading moving forward and at least for the rest of this week it looks like prices have room to move higher considering that resistance is thin up to the 0.0080 area where the OTE short zone top and TD risk line await. The green SCMR signals, bullish candle formations, and favorable momentum and volume indications confirm that the bias is still to the upside, although we are on a weekly TD (9) top signal on near overbought momentum so we want to be selling into the 0.0080 level in order to reload on a dip to a higher low in a few weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0060 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0080 area. The longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is looking a bit better to start this week given a blue SCMR reversal signal today on a bullish candle formation and improving momentum and volume indications, however price remains below the shorter-term moving averages while the 200 SMA creeps lower so we think caution is certainly still warranted moving forward. The fact that daily support is very thin down until sub-$130 is also not great for the bulls, so we’ll stay patient for lower levels before getting active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $130 with a medium-term target of $200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
While ETH/BTC has pushed back into the channel on a blue SCMR reversal signal and a bullish engulfing candle formation, we think this is likely to be a failed test of the underside of the channel due to still bearish shorter-term market structure, a still red TD count (4), and momentum oscillators that still need to recharge a bit. Price has also yet to test the 50 SMA, or the 100 SMA, and support is thin down to the 0.070 area which is where we think price will head once weakness permeates the crypto markets once again later in the week.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.070 for shorter-term upside to 0.085 and longer-term upside to the 0.100 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is bouncing quite hard today on a blue SCMR reversal signal and bullish engulfing candle on some nice volume and momentum divergences, however the TD count remains red (4), short-term market structure is still broken, and price remains below the shorter-term moving averages with the falling 100 SMA just overhead likely to become strong resistance if not broken in the near future, therefore we continue to wait for sub-$1400 prices before thinking about adding to current long positions.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1400 for shorter-term upside to the $2200 area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to grind to the upside despite heavy resistance overhead on bullish SCMR signals and a bullish TD count (5) while market structure continues to improve and the shorter-term moving averages begin to trend a bit higher, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The favorable momentum and volume indications are also suggesting slightly higher prices over the coming days, likely up to the 0.00021 area, before a buyable pullback materializes heading into the holiday weekend.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.00017 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00021 area.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT remains a bit concerning considering that price was rejected from the 50 and 100 SMA’s earlier today thus sparking a bearish candle formation heading into the daily close while the TD count remains red (4) and money flow is still highly negative. The falling longer-term moving averages and lackluster momentum oscillators are also not a great sign for the bulls from a shorter-term perspective, however we still think that buying dips close to the $3 region is a good play both long and short-term (as is selling the $5 area for shorter-term profit-taking).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $3.20 for shorter-term upside to the $5.00 region.
Good Luck, Good Trading!