Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
(August 13 – 2022)
Following a week of mixed news headlines consisting of yet another large financial institution getting involved in the space and a developer being arrested in connection with the Tornado Cash sanctions, price action has remained resilient due to the still strong shorter-term technicals. All signs still point to a continuation to the upside over the next few weeks before a broad risk-off drawdown in the fall to test the previous lows, a move that we will happily buy given the 4-year cycle timing near year’s end.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First let’s look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price is currently attempting to break convincingly above the upper ascending triangle trendline on a still bullish TD count (4) and still green SCMR signals while market structure remains favorable, so the bulls appear to still be in control for the time being. The rising moving averages and encouraging momentum and volume indications also suggest that the path of least resistance is still to the upside for now, however we expect the grind up to the $26.8k target to remain choppy and inconsistent thus patience over the shorter-term is certainly warranted.
Short-term Trade Idea: Hold current positions for shorter-term upside to the $26.8k level.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next let’s look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand halfway through August and for now the setup continues to favor the bulls considering that favorable shorter-term market structure remains intact, the TD count is still green (4), SCMR signals are also still green, and the 50 SMA continues to trend higher while SCMR support builds below the market. Having said that, the momentum and volume indications leave something to be desired and price is at resistance via the falling 100 SMA so we could be due for a pause/pullback for a few days before the next leg higher materializes.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $20k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has been pulling back as expected over the past few days after failing once again to get above the ascending triangle, and the TD count remains bearish (6) while a bearish pennant develops over the near-term, which suggests more downside before the bulls get active once again. The still recharging momentum oscillators and lackluster volume indications also point to some continued weakness over the next few days, however we still like the 0.0058 – 0.0062 region to add to positions for an eventual breakout above the triangle.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0062 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0075 area. The longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is still treading water in the $ 160s on mixed but slightly bullish candle formations and SCMR signals while shorter-term market structure remains bullish but longer-term structure is still bearish, all pointing to more of the same for the foreseeable future. The mixed TD count, lackluster momentum and volume indications, and mixed moving averages surrounding the market also signal more consolidation in the $140 – $170 range moving forward, therefore buying dips and selling rips around those levels makes sense until further notice.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $140 with a shorter-term target of $170.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC continues to fly to the upside in anticipation of the Merge next month, and the still bullish short-term technicals such as bright green SCMR signals, favorable candle formations, and a still bullish TD count (4) aren’t hurting the bulls either. The breakout above the ascending channel is also a sign of bullish continuation on favorable market structure, and volume indications suggest that the bulls are still in full control, therefore we’re expecting a continuation higher to the 0.085 region where the medium-term supply area is before a pullback materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.069 for shorter-term upside to 0.085 and longer-term upside to the 0.100 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is moving up to the top of the lower supply area on bright green SCMR signals, bullish candle formations, a favorable TD count (4), and a rising 50 SMA, all of which suggest that a breakout above resistance at this $2k area is likely in the near future. Strong volume indications also point to a bullish bias over the near-term with targets in the $2200 – $2300 being quite reasonable, however momentum is currently very overbought so once price action tops out the move to the downside is likely to be swift.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1600 for shorter-term upside to the $2200 area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC is looking pretty heavy for the time being considering that price is creeping lower on red SCMR signals and small but bearish candle formations while market structure remains broken and bearish as well, not great signs for the bulls moving forward. The fact that price is back below the 50 SMA, which has rejoined the longer-term moving averages in a downtrend, is also bad news for the bulls, as are the momentum and volume indications, although we are hoping for support to emerge in the 0.00014 region for a higher low and subsequent launchpad for a larger move up down the road.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.00014 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00020 area.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT continues to consolidate in a very tight range on a hodgepodge of SCMR signals and candle formations and still highly uncertain market structure while the TD count remains a mess, all pointing to more sideways action until further notice. The converging shorter-term moving averages and fairly mixed momentum and volume indications back up this view, so buying dips and selling rips within the $3 – $5 trading range makes a lot of sense moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $3 for shorter-term upside to the $5 region.
Good Luck, Good Trading!