Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(July 18 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
While details continue to trickle out regarding the insolvency of multiple crypto lending firms and hedge funds, it appears as though the crypto markets have priced in the worst of the idiosyncratic risk that these companies posed to the crypto ecosystem which has allowed price to rise well into the $22k’s over the past 24 hours. No doubt that this strength is a welcome respite from the negative price action we saw last week, and is likely to continue over the shorter-term, however the longer-term technicals and the broader macro fundamentals are likely to keep sell pressure on the market following this countertrend rally.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
Let’s start with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price climbed all the way back into the medium-term supply area and range top today on improving volume indications and reversing shorter-term moving averages, so there’s still hope for this rally moving forward despite the pullback this afternoon. The still green TD count (4) and active SCMR support below the market are also good signs for the bulls for later in the week, however recent candle formations show that there is plenty of supply around $23k which is where the falling 200 SMA and old TD risk line are soon to intersect, all while the momentum oscillators rollover, so the bearish orange SCMR pivot bar forming now likely signals a near-term pullback to support in the high-$20k’s before higher levels materialize.
Short-term Trade Idea: Nibble at weakness below $21k for shorter-term upside to the $27k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand following weeks of sideways action and for now the range remains intact due to a wick lower today following a tag of resistance near the falling 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages continue to trend lower and the volume indications still show a lack of major buying interest, not the best news for the bulls from a slightly longer-term perspective. Having said that, the shorter-term outlook remains fairly sanguine considering that the TD count remains bullish (4), market structure continues to improve, and the momentum oscillators have plenty of room to run higher, so if the bulls can muster the strength to break $23k in the near future then the door is wide open to $27k.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $20k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has been surprisingly resilient over the past several weeks moving up to and above the upper triangle trendline recently on bright green SCMR signals and improving volume indications while all of the moving averages continue to rise beneath the market, all suggesting that the bulls are in control for now. On the other hand, candle formations have gotten dicey since price tagged the supply area and now the TD count is painting a perfected (9) top on overbought momentum oscillators therefore we need to be ready for a near-term drop into support around either 0.0060 or 0.0055, both of which are buying opportunities for an eventual move well above the still relevant triangle.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0060 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0070 area. The longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD got within $1 of our $150 sell target recently before selling off on a bearish candle formation that is failing at the falling 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages continue to move lower as well and the momentum and volume indications look somewhat concerning, so we’re cognizant of the possibility of a shorter-term top in this region. Having said that, the TD count remains favorable for now (5), shorter-term market structure has turned decidedly bullish overall, and there is not much resistance above $150 until the $160 – $170 region, which is the next area to take profits on shorter-term swing trades.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $120 with a shorter-term target of $165.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC is absolutely ripping to the upside right now moving above all short-term resistances over the past few days on bright green SCMR signals, firmly bullish candle formations, rapidly improving market structure, and a still bullish TD count (5), all suggesting that the bulls have retaken control of the market. The push above all of the falling moving averages and the rising momentum and volume indications also point to more strength over the near-term, likely up to the supply area in the 0.075 region, although we expect a rather significant pullback around or before that level that should give us a chance to get back in at more favorable levels (hopefully around 0.060).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.060 for shorter-term upside to 0.075 and longer-term upside to the 0.100 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is looking very strong to start this midsummer week considering that price has moved above the falling 50 SMA today on a large green SCMR signal and bullish candle formation that is confirming a shift to bullish shorter-term market structure while the TD count remains green as well (5), so the bulls certainly appear to be in the driver’s seat for now. The improving momentum and volume indications also suggest a bullish shorter-term bias, however resistance around $1800 will likely put an end to the party for the time being so we would start to take profits on shorter-term positions around there.
Trade Idea: Hold current positions for shorter-term upside to the $1800 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC remains a solid performer during this mini-bull run with prices breaking out to new local highs today on a bright green SCMR signal and green TD (3) while market structure continues to improve and the 50 SMA begins to curl up, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that price is currently piercing the 100 and 200 SMA’s while the momentum and volume indications remain favorable overall is also positive for the bulls, which is why we’re expecting a move up to the 0.00003500 region before a larger pullback materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.00002200 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00003500 area.
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/USDT daily linear chart
ARRR/USDT is testing new local highs today on a bright green SCMR signal and still bullish TD count (5) while the 50 SMA flattens out below the market and the momentum oscillators point to more short-term strength, therefore the bulls likely have a bit more left in the tank before a selloff. That said, still lackluster volume indications and heavy resistance around $0.70 likely keep a cap on price, that is unless BTC/USD heads to $27k in which case the $1 area is the next prime profit-taking zone until further notice.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Good Luck, Good Trading!