Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(July 4 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Despite news that Three Arrows Capital (3AC) filed for bankruptcy yesterday in a New York City court, in addition to the rough week that we had in terms of crypto price action, it comes as a bit of a surprise that BTC prices are still hanging around the $19k level following a higher low in the $18k’s that we had been hoping for all week. That said, the reaction off of the $18,595 lows has been unconvincing and anemic so far and we still have +/- 10 days until a true low develops for the end of the 60-day cycle on July 11th, hence we’re still leaning to the downside over the shorter-term even if this sideways action persists through the weekend.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
First, we’ll look at the 4-hour chart for a granular view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price has moved all the way back down to the top of the demand area following the spike higher we saw on Thursday on mostly bearish candle formations and a mixed to slightly bearish TD count, none of which is signaling a sustainable reversal off of the local lows from earlier in the week at this time. The active SCMR resistance dots overhead, the falling moving averages, and the discouraging volume indications also suggest that the bearish bias remains intact despite the recent stability, although the momentum oscillators are starting to perk up and we could have a potential Adam & Eve bottom developing around $19k which is certainly something to watch as we head into next week.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we want to look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term setup as we begin the second half of the year and we can see that price is moving back to the downside once again on red SCMR signals, bearish candle formations, a still bearish TD count (6), and atrocious looking market structure, all confirming that the bears remain in the driver’s seat at this time. The active SCMR resistance dots overhead and the falling moving averages also suggest lower prices before a sustainable low develops, however the momentum oscillators continue to improve so once we do find a bottom the rally off of there should be quite impressive.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $17k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
The XMR/BTC bulls continue to try to break and hold the 0.0060 level but are still struggling to do so thus creating more bearish wicks/candles on mixed SCMR signals and a very mixed TD count while market structure remains highly uncertain overall, all pointing to more choppy consolidation in ~0.0055 – 0.0062 range over the coming days. Having said that, the volume indications are showing zero conviction on the part of the bulls at this time and momentum oscillators are getting close to overbought despite the lack of sustainable upside movement suggesting that the path of least resistance over the coming week is still lower into the confluence area in the low-0.0050’s (which we would be buyers of).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0053 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0065 area. The longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has moved back down into the demand area on mostly red SCMR signals and bearish candle formations while market structure remains firmly bearish, all the moving averages continue to move to the downside, and the TD count (6) remains bearish, all suggesting that lower prices are still likely before a sustainable bottom develops. The active SCMR resistance dots overhead and the lackluster momentum and volume indications support the bearish thesis moving forward, although we need to watch the double bottom that could be forming around the $100 level if the bulls can defend the $96.77 lows well into next week.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ETH/BTC
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
The ETH/BTC bulls are still trying to establish a higher low just above the demand area and OTE long zone on improving momentum oscillators, which is certainly not bad news for the bulls moving forward, however if they are to put in a higher low we think it comes at slightly lower levels in the low-0.050’s where the bottom of the OTE and the demand area intersect. The still bearish TD count (5) and falling moving averages also suggest at least slightly lower prices from here, but volumes are telling us that a small shot on the long side in that confluence area is not a bad r/r play over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.051 for shorter-term upside to 0.060 and longer-term upside to the 0.080 area.
ETH/USD
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is looking very heavy this holiday weekend considering that price continues to bleed back down towards the regional and cycle lows below $1000 on bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, a still bearish TD count (5), and falling moving averages, therefore we’re expecting lower prices over the coming days. The discouraging momentum and volume indications are also suggesting a still intact shorter-term bearish bias, hence we’ll stay neutral until clearer signs of a sustainable bottom emerge.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
DERO/BTC
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC weekly linear chart
DERO/BTC is breaking down to new local, regional, and cycle lows this weekend on a red SCMR signal and bearish candle formation that is confirming still firmly bearish market structure while the TD count flips back to a bearish, certainly not great news for the bulls moving forward. The break of the 200 SMA today, the active SCMR resistance dots overhead, and the still very discouraging volume indications also suggest that the bears are still in control overall, although we are expecting a bounce off of support in the 0.00010 – 0.00012 area which is where we’ll take a small shot on the long side if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00012 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00024 area.
DERO/USD
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT weekly linear chart
DERO/USDT continues to plunge to new lows this week on a firmly bearish candle formation and red SCMR signal while market structure remains atrocious and the 50 SMA starts to pick up steam to the downside, so the bulls need to remain in safety mode until further notice. The momentum and volume indications also suggest a still intact bearish bias as we start the month of July, hence our continued neutrality in terms of short-term positioning, although we do have a weekly TD (8) painting so we’ll be looking for signs of a sustainable low over the next 7 – 10 days (much like everything else due to the end of the 60-day cycle around July 11th).
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Good Luck, Good Trading!