Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(June 17 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With newsflow remaining highly negative given the Babel Finance news today, as well as rumors of a Three Arrows Capital (3AC) insolvency, it comes as no surprise that the crypto and bitcoin markets remain under pressure despite being around key support levels on almost every chart. While we expect selling pressure to remain the dominant market dynamic heading into the weekend and into next week, we also think that crypto is at least due a pause before the next leg to the downside below $20k. This view reaffirms the outlook from Wednesday for some chop over the coming days between ~$20k – $22k before a test of lower levels (and what ultimately could be the cycle bottom).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price is consolidating near the lows on mostly red SCMR signals, bearish candle formations, still broken market structure, and a still bearish TD count (6), all suggesting that the bears remain in control overall. Active SCMR resistance dots overhead and falling moving averages are also bad news for the bulls moving forward, although we do have some bullish momentum and volume divergences so if they can hold current levels through the daily close today then we expect some stabilization in price between $20 – $22k before directionality emerges once again (likely lower).
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technical setup where we can see that price is now back below the TD risk line on a red SCMR signal and bearish candle formation while market structure remains highly discouraging and the TD count is still in the bear camp for now (8), all pointing to a downward bias over the next 24-36 hours. The momentum and volume indications also aren’t given the bulls much to work with over the near-term, although we will likely get a TD 9 buy signal tomorrow hence our call for a small rally or stabilization for a few days if the bulls can defend $20k over the course of the day today.
Long-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to follow the technicals fairly closely with price dipping down below 0.0050 this week as expected, and now price is bouncing off of support on some bullish green shoots such as a blue SCMR reversal signal and a hold of the rising 200 SMA. The momentum oscillators are almost recharged as well, another pretty good sign for the bulls over the shorter-term, however market structure remains bearish, SCMR resistance continues to build overhead, the 50 SMA is falling, and the TD count (4) suggests more downside following this bounce, so we would be reducing risk between current levels and 0.0060 in order to try to rebuy on a retest of sub-0.0050 levels over the coming weeks.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0050 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0060 area. The longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD continues to look quite heavy from a technical perspective considering that price is sitting near the lows on a bearish candle formation and red SCMR signal while the TD count remains bearish (4) and the moving averages continue to fall, all suggesting lower prices over the coming days. The atrocious state of market structure and the discouraging volume indications aren’t helping matters for the bulls either, although momentum is oversold and support around $100 is quite strong so we expect some stabilization soon around that level, if not a countertrend bounce back to the upside.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $100 for longer-term upside to the $1000 area.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC remains under selling pressure heading into the weekend thus keeping candle formations generally bearish and SCMR signals red while market structure remains a mess and a bearish pennant formation develops near the lows, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the TD count is unhelpful, the moving averages are falling, and the momentum oscillators remain suppressed is also a bad sign for the bulls moving forward, hence we think a final leg down into the mid to high-0.040’s is likely before a sustainable bottom (however the recent spike in the volume indications shows the bullish interest below the key 0.050 level).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.050 for longer-term upside to the 0.080 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD bulls continue to try to defend the key $1000 level heading into the weekend despite still bearish candle formations and red SCMR signals, which might be possible given the TD 9 bottom signal that flashed yesterday, although we remain skeptical due to still strong bearish market structure and discouraging momentum and volume indications. Price is also well below the previous TD risk line indicating that the bears are still firmly in control, so we would not be surprised to see price test sub-$1000 levels before the bulls truly get active on the long side once again.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC weekly linear chart
DERO/BTC is currently finding some shorter-term support just below the 0.00020 level which is where the weekly 200 SMA currently sits, decent news for the bulls given price is also inside the OTE long zone, although price is currently sitting around regional and cycle lows on bearish candle formations and red SCMR signals while market structure remains quite heavy overall, so the bears are still in the driver’s seat despite some near-term green shoots. The falling 50 SMA, the bearish volume indications, and a not yet recharged RSI are also keeping the bears in control, although there is a ton of long-term support that is converging between current levels and 0.00010 so we like the idea of accumulating DCA-style on further weakness down closer to that level.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00015 for medium-term upside to the 0.00025 area.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT weekly linear chart
DERO/USDT has fallen down into the upper demand area that originated back in May of last year on a decent candle formation and a huge bullish MACD divergence, decent news for the bulls moving forward, although the bad still far outweighs the good considering that SCMR signals are still red, market structure remains broken, the moving averages are rolling over above the market, and the volume indications shows sellers firmly in control, therefore caution remains warranted overall. The still bearish TD count (6) and not yet recharged RSI reading are also suggesting more downside before all is said and done, hence we’ll stay neutral until clearer signs of a bottom emerge.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Good Luck, Good Trading!