Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(May 3 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Given a lack of crypto-related newsflow right now and a generally consolidative environment as far as price action goes, the technicals continue to determine shorter-term directionality (or lack thereof) for both BTC and altcoins. BTC showed some minor strength yesterday before weakening back below $38k today, which is in line with our forecast from Sunday’s CMU video. Now things start to get a bit more interesting leading up to the Fed meeting tomorrow, which is sure to cause volatility in both directions, however we think investors are overestimating the rate hike which should cause a bounce in risk-on assets later in the week (including crypto).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll start with a look at the 4-hour chart for a view of the short-term setup where we can see that the bulls were unable to push price above the falling 50 SMA yesterday which created a lower high and kept market structure bearish thus allowing the sellers to get active this afternoon. This downward action has sparked a red SCMR signal on a bearish candle formation and a newly bearish TD count while the longer-term moving averages continue trend lower and the momentum and volume indications both show room for near-term downside before tomorrow’s Fed meeting, likely down to the $36k region where we’ll see stronger support on the daily chart below.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness around $36k for shorter-term upside to $41k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next up is the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that price has yet to break down below the support confluence in the $37k’s despite a still bearish TD count and new SCMR resistance overhead, which shows the stubbornness of the bulls at these levels, although the red SCMR signal today and the mostly bearish moving averages overhead are opening the door to the top of the demand area and TD risk line at $36k. That said, we’ve already nibbled around current levels and will do so again at $36k if given the opportunity, so we still don’t see a major breakdown to new lows despite the discouraging-looking shorter-term charts.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate around $36k for longer-term upside to the $120k area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Despite a nice bounce today for XMR/BTC, the intermediate-term trend remains down as expected on red SCMR signals, bearish market structure, and lackluster momentum and volume indications, all of which points to more downside before a sustainable bottom materializes. The recent break of the 50 SMA is also keeping the near-term bias to the downside for now, however a textbook TD 9 bottom signal yesterday and still rising longer-term moving averages are keeping us very interested in buying any weakness to or below the key 0.0050 level.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0050 for shorter-term upside to 0.0065. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD fell below the $200 level yesterday after breaking below the 200 SMA on a bearish candle formation and red SCMR signal that is being followed by another red SCMR signal while new SCMR resistance dots begin to build overhead, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the near-term. The atrocious looking volume indications and bearish shorter-term market structure will also keep downward pressure on the market for the time being, however the momentum oscillators are recharged and there has been zero bounce since the selloff began so we’ll continue to nibble on long positions below $200 when given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $200 for medium-term upside back to $265. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC has already had a rough week considering that price fell sharply out of the descending channel yesterday on some bearish candle formations and red SCMR signals that sparked new SCMR resistance overhead and voided the previous demand area in this zone, all bad signs for the bulls over the near-term. The break of the 100 SMA, the reversing 50 SMA, and the terrible looking volume indications also suggest a bearish bias over the shorter-term, although momentum is oversold, we have a TD 9 buy signal working from the weekend, and the 200 SMA/OTE support zone around current levels is quite attractive from a risk/reward perspective even if prices head lower eventually.
Trade Idea: Hold current positions for shorter-term upside to the 0.00004000 level. Longer-term target resides around 0.00010000.
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/USDT daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC has been slammed to the downside over the past few days on bearish candle formations and red SCMR signals that have reinforced bearish market structure and sparked more SCMR resistance overhead, not great news for the bulls moving forward. The newly bearish TD count, discouraging state of the moving averages, and terrible looking volume indications are also keeping our bias bearish for now, although a nice MACD bullish divergence and support between $1.00 – $1.10 area keeping us very interested in buying the dip into that zone if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1.10 for shorter-term upside to the $1.50 area. Longer-term target remains around $12.00.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC 3-day linear chart
What a run for the XEQ/BTC bulls over the past few weeks with prices skyrocketing to new highs against BTC on very solid technicals and rapidly improving fundamentals. Now the risk/reward profile has shifted to the bears resulting in volatility near historical resistance which is a sign that perhaps a pullback is due, which is what we think is most likely before another leg to the upside. RSI is overbought, MACD looks toppy, and the current candle formation is quite worrisome, so we’ll start to position to buy the dip in the 0.00000600 to 0.00000700 area over the coming days and/or weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the 0.00000700 level for shorter-term upside to the 0.00001200 region (post-dip). Longer-term target resides in the 0.0002000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinMarketCap XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD has been unstoppable over the past several weeks reaching regional highs all the way above the $0.70 level before falling sharply today on a bearish candle formation while momentum is overbought and toppy and price is very far from the accelerating moving averages, which points to a bearish bias over the shorter-term. MACD and OBV rolling over are also signs that the bulls are running out of steam for now, so we’ll wait for a fairly significant selloff before getting active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $0.35 for medium-term upside to the $0.85 area. Longer-term target resides around the $2.40 level.
Good Luck, Good Trading!