Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(April 23 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The bitcoin and crypto markets have stabilized over the past few days and are now slowly recovering back to the $40k region this weekend on improving short-term technicals and some decent news on the Greyscale ETF over the past 24 hours. While there could be some minor upside over the remainder of the weekend, we think that weak equities and generally risk-off sentiment in the broader markets will keep crypto either choppy or slightly bearish for at least the early part of this last week of April.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
First, we’ll look at a zoomed-in view of the 4-hour chart to see where the technicals stand following last week’s pullback and it appears that price has found a local low around where we suspected it would, and today we’ve gotten a blue SCMR reversal signal on a bullish TD count (5) and a potential confirmation of a shift to medium-term bullish market structure should this in fact be a sustainable bottom, all promising signs for the bulls over the near-term. The recharged momentum oscillators and improving volume indications are also positive signs for the bulls, although all of the moving averages are now trending lower meaning heavier resistance overhead than we’ve seen in a while so we would start to take some profits on longs in the $41k area if given the opportunity over the coming days.
Short-term Trade Idea: Hold current positions for shorter-term upside to the $41k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll look at the daily chart next for a view of the medium-term technical setup where we can see that price is finding support at the top of the upper demand area once again and today we have a blue SCMR reversal signal while the momentum oscillators are recharged and bullishly divergent, so there is some hope for the bulls over the remainder of the month and into next. Having said that, market structure remains worrying for now, the TD count is newly bearish, all of the moving averages are falling, and volumes have stagnated suggesting that more choppy consolidation with a slight downward bias is likely, at least for the early part of the week.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $38k for longer-term upside to the $120k area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
The XMR/BTC bulls are being quite stubborn for the time being, rightly so, despite all of the top signals that have developed on the chart over the past several days, although we still don’t think they can avoid the fate of at least a retracement to the downside given an intact TD 9 signal, a textbook bearish doji candle, still overbought momentum, and a bearishly divergent MACD. The fact that price is now back below the upper TD risk line is also a sign of weakness, so we’re sticking with our call for a pullback to at least the 0.0060 level, if not the low-0.0050’s, before a resumption of the still newly developing medium-term uptrend.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0060 for medium-term upside to 0.0078. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
The technicals are really starting to stack up against the bulls heading into next week with a TD 9 top developing today on a bearish doji candle and still overbought momentum oscillators, all pointing to a cool-off over the coming days. The stagnating volume indications and the lack of support below the market also suggest a pullback in the near future, likely to the $230 region where a bounce becomes more likely.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness to around $230 for medium-term upside back to $320. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC has continued to push to the upside over the past few days hitting the bottom of our sell star before pulling back into the daily close today to turn the current candle formation fairly bearish while the TD count likely goes into a (9) top tomorrow, all signaling that a selloff is likely in the not too distant future. The overbought momentum oscillators and deteriorating volume indications also suggest a challenging environment for the bulls over the near-term, although we certainly think this will be a buyable pullback that we would love to get long in the high-0.00020’s on.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.00028 area for shorter-term upside to the 0.00040 level. Longer-term target resides around 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT is also looking toppy along with the BTC pair due to a TD (8) signal yesterday and a red TD (1) today on a bearish candle formation that failed to make it back into the supply area overhead, all of which shows the weakening position of the bulls right now. Another rejection off of the falling 200 SMA and lackluster momentum and volume indications also point to some weakness in the near future, likely down into the $11 – $12 area where OTE and moving average support is building.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $12.00 for shorter-term upside to the $15.00 area. Longer-term target remains around $120.00.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
XEQ/BTC is looking fairly worrying for the time being given the possibility of a clean double top similar to what we saw in December of 2021 which led to an 80% decline from top to bottom, certainly not what we want to see moving forward. The bearishly divergent RSI and MACD readings and lackluster volume indications aren’t helping matters for the bulls right now either, so downside to the 0.00000600 area seems likely over the shorter-term (a move which we would be buyers of at least for a bounce). If that 0.00000600 region cannot hold as support though, then we need to head for the hills for a while to see where this thing eventually lands (unfortunately).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness around the 0.00000600 level for medium-term upside to the 0.00001200 region. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0002000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinMarketCap XEQ/USD daily linear chart
It also looks like we have a double top in the making on the XEQ/ USD pair as well, this one just below the OTE short zone on bearishly divergent momentum oscillators and still bearish longer-term market structure. Having said that, support in the $0.25 area is quite strong, at least for a bounce back up to a lower high, but if that key support level is broken with conviction in the near future then downside below $0.20 becomes very likely before another sustainable bottom materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $0.25 for medium-term upside to the $0.40 area. Longer-term target resides around the $2.40 level.
Good Luck, Good Trading!