Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Weakness has once again overcome the bitcoin and crypto markets today pushing the BTC price back below $40k following a sharp but short-lived rally above that key level yesterday, a sign that the prevailing environment remains predominantly bearish for now. In addition to the discouraging price action today, the lack of any positive newsflow and a still bearish technical setup on almost all timeframes also suggests a challenging market for the bulls heading into the weekend, however we still like the $37k – $38k region to try to catch a bounce off of another higher low before retreating to the bunkers if market structure is broken with a move below $37k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First let’s look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price is moving below the $40k level this morning on a firmly bearish candle formation and a red SCMR signal that is confirming still intact bearish market structure while new SCMR resistance dots build overhead and the shorter-term moving averages start to pick up steam to the downside, all bad signs for the bulls over the coming days. The lackluster momentum and volume indications and the lack of support immediately below the market also point to additional weakness over the near-term, likely down to the demand area confluence in the $38k region (which we have been talking about for at least the past few weeks).
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $38k for shorter-term upside to the $42k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next up is the daily chart for a slightly longer-term view of the market where we can see that despite yesterday’s TD (9) bottom signal, we’re getting another red (1) today on a bearish candle formation and a red SCMR signal that was rejected off of the 100 SMA which is now acting as resistance while strong SCMR resistance dots continue to build overhead as well, none of which bodes well for the bulls as we approach US Tax Day on Monday. The still recharging momentum oscillators and negative money flow are also bearish in nature for the time being, hence we’ll stay patient for lower levels at this point, however there is very strong confluence in the $37k – $38k area consisting of the bottom of the demand area, bottom of the OTE long zone, and rising triangle trendline so strong countertrend bounce from there is likely before we reassess for the medium-term.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $38k for longer-term upside to the $120k area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Despite still bright green SCMR signals and a green TD count on XMR/BTC, we continue to think that a local and regional top is developing in this Fibonacci resistance cluster on weakening and overbought momentum oscillators and deteriorating volume indications, so we’re staying on the sidelines until lower levels materialize. The distance from the increasing bullish moving averages is also a sign that a pullback is needed before another leg to the upside, although support in the 0.0052 and 0.0045 regions is quite strong and good spots for dip-buying so that’s where we’ll save dry powder for moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness around 0.0052 and 0.0045 for medium-term upside to 0.0065. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is still above the $220 level today despite the weakness in BTC/USD, although the market is looking increasingly heavy with a bearish candle formation today on a red TD (2) and deteriorating momentum and volume indications, therefore we’re expecting a breakdown back below $220 in the not too distant future. Having said that, we continue to think that dips are for buying overall and there is strong support in the $210 area, and again down around $200, so those are the zones we’ll be interested in buying if given the opportunity over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness to around $210 and anything below $200 for medium-term upside back to $250. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
The ARRR/BTC bulls continue to outperform our expectations despite still being in a downward consolidation considering that the descending channel from last week has been convincingly broken to the upside this week while also printing a blue SCMR reversal signal, encouraging signs for the bulls moving forward. The fact that price is holding above all major support levels despite lackluster momentum and volume indications is also a good sign for the bulls overall, as are the rising shorter-term moving averages, although we certainly cannot rule out a spike below 0.00004000 before a resumption of the medium-term uptrend so we’ll leave some dry powder for that area in case the bulls get spooked over the weekend.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.00004000 area for shorter-term upside to the 0.00005000 level. Longer-term target resides around 0.00010000.
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/USDT daily linear chart
ARRR/USDT looks like it’s close to bottoming and resuming its uptrend due to the blue SCMR reversal signal yesterday, the TD (9) buy signal today, and still intact bullish market structure going back to January of this year, so at least a short-term countertrend bounce looks likely in the near future. The still fairly positive volume indications and the rising shorter-term moving averages are also positive signs for the bulls moving forward, although a downward shock to BTC over the weekend likely leads to our next target just above $1.50 which we would certainly buy if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1.55 for shorter-term upside to the $2.20 area. Longer-term target remains around $12.00.
Oxen (OXEN) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin OXEN/BTC 3-day linear chart
OXEN/BTC continues to consolidate just under the falling 3-day 100 SMA on a red TD count (for now), mixed candle formations, and neutral SCMR signals, all suggesting more of the same over the shorter-term. The still recharging and lackluster momentum oscillators, as well as the deteriorating volume indications also support more choppy price action over the coming days, likely with a slight downward bias to the 0.00001200 – 0.00001300 area which we would be buyers of if given the chance over the upcoming weekend.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.00001300 for medium-term upside to the 0.00001800 region. Longer-term target resides in the 0.00004000 area.
TradingView Kucoin OXEN/USDT 3-day linear chart
OXEN/USDT is moving to the downside today along with BTC/USD on a red TD (3) count, a bearish candle formation, and a red SCMR signal that has sparked new SCMR resistance overhead while TD resistance builds as well, not great news for the bulls over the shorter-term. The falling 200 SMA above the market, the falling 50 SMA below it, and the bearish momentum and volume indications also point to a downward bias over the coming days, although there is a ton of support around the $0.50 level which we would be buyers of moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $0.50 for medium-term upside to the $0.75 area. Longer-term target resides around the $5.00 level.
Good Luck, Good Trading!