Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(april 7 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following the midweek crypto selloff that we saw over the past few days prices are now starting to stabilize at near-term support on positive news coming out of Bitcoin 2022 Conference in Miami, particularly for BTC and Lightning as we found out that both Robinhood and Strike are incorporating the payment network in the not too distant future. However, even this news has not been able to spark a reversal on any of the charts that we follow (yet) and the technicals are still suggesting a slight bearish bias heading into the weekend, so we’ll stay cautious (but ready to buy support should the opportunity present itself once again).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technical setup where we can see that price broke below the rising 100 SMA today on a bearish candle formation and a series of red SCMR signals, a move that has broken near-term market structure and flipped the 50 SMA back to bearish, none of which bodes well for the bulls heading into the weekend. The fact that the 100 SMA is now acting as resistance is also fairly bad news for the bulls moving forward, as are the still discouraging volume indications, although the TD count is close to flashing a buy signal, momentum is almost fully recharged, and there is still very strong support around the $42k level due to the slowly rising 200 SMA, the bottom of the upper demand area, and the top of the OTE long zone, so that’s where we’ll try to buy the dip if given the chance over the coming days.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $42k for shorter-term upside to the $52k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart for a slightly broader view of the technicals where we can see that the selloff over the past few days has turned shorter-term market structure decidedly bearish on red SCMR signals and bearish candle formations while new SCMR resistance dots build overhead, and the TD count suggests at least 5 more days of downside pressure, so the bears are still in control heading into the upcoming weekend. The falling longer-term moving averages and the not yet recharged momentum oscillators also point to lower prices in the near future, although again there is a strong support confluence in the $42k region that is telling us to get active on the long side again when/if we get there.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $42k for longer-term upside to the $120k area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has been on a roll this week with buyers pushing price up to the bottom of the supply area on bright green SCMR signals and firmly bullish candle formations that are keeping market structure very constructive while SCMR support dots build at multiple levels below the market, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the rising shorter-term moving averages are about to cross above the flatlining 200 SMA is also a positive sign for the bulls, as are the volume indications as well as the TD count (4), however momentum is very close to overbought while price is at historical resistance so we expect some turbulence below the 0.0054 level before a move higher to the Fibonacci extensions overhead.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0048 for upside to 0.0057. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
The weakness in BTC/USD is keeping XMR/USD in consolidation mode above the flatlining 200 SMA on mostly green SCMR signals and mixed but mostly green TD counts while SCMR support builds below the market and the 50 SMA crosses above the rising 100 SMA, all of which is actually pretty good news for the bulls overall. Having said that, the momentum oscillators are close to overbought somehow, the volume indications are still not all that impressive, and BTC looks weak heading into the weekend, so we’ll stay ready for a dip to or below $200 to add to current positions.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $200 for medium-term upside back to $250. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
ETH/BTC appears to be putting in a local top this week as we have already had a TD 9 sell signal on the daily chart (not shown) and now we have a TD 9 developing on the 3-day chart as well that is set to print over the weekend, so the bulls should be on full alert over the coming days. The fact that price is back below the 50 SMA for now on a small but discouraging candle formation is also not great for the bulls over the shorter-term, and neither are the lackluster momentum and volume indications, although support remains quite strong around and below the 0.070 level which is where we’ll keep our buying interest heading into the weekend.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.070 area for shorter-term upside to the 0.078 level. Longer-term target resides around 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has been pulling back off of the 200 SMA over the past couple of days on some bearish candle formations that have broken near-term market structure without much in the way of support below the market, so the bulls should certainly be on the defensive for the time being. The fact that the momentum oscillators are just now starting to recharge out of overbought territory while the volume indications take a big hit as well is also not great news for the bulls over the next few days, although support around and below the $3000 area is still very strong so that’s where we’ll get active on the long side again if given the opportunity,.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $3000 for shorter-term upside to the $3900 area. Longer-term target remains around $12,000.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
XEQ/BTC has been back on the move to the upside over the past few days on firmly bullish candle formations following an almost nonexistent pause/consolidation earlier in the week, certainly a very good signs for the bulls over the shorter-term, as are the rising moving averages and the bullish market structure situation. Having said that, the volume indications are still not all that convincing and momentum is overbought on some bearish divergences so we would be taking short-term profits just below or around the 0.00001000 level in order to try to reload on a real retracement later in the month.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000600 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00001000 region. Longer-term target now resides in the 0.00002000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinMarketCap XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD is breaking out to new local highs today despite the weakness in BTC/USD, a great sign for the bulls moving forward, as are the rising moving averages, the bullish market structure setup, and a lack of historical resistance overhead. Having said that, price is hitting the bottom of the OTE short zone on overbought and bearishly divergent momentum oscillators with even more resistance developing in the $0.45 region, which is where we think it might be wise to take some profits on successful short-term buys from lower levels.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.30 for shorter-term upside to the $0.45 area. Longer-term target now resides around the $2.40 level.
Good Luck, Good Trading!