Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(mars 31 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
While the bitcoin and crypto markets are pulling back from the recent local highs today as we expected earlier in the week, both the technicals and the fundamentals are suggesting that this intermediate-term uptrend is not yet over and that we should be trying to buy this weakness before another leg up. Not only are the traditional metrics pointing to a buy the dip scenario heading into this weekend, but the persistent bid by Terra (LUNA) in the BTC market for the next month is likely to keep most pullbacks shallow hence we’re moving buy levels up as the markets transitions from a multi-month bear market into a potential multi-month bull.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First we’ll look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price is slowly grinding to the downside off of the $48,234 local highs within a descending channel/bull flag on a hodgepodge of candle formations and now neutral SCMR signals and a bearish TD (4) count while the momentum oscillators are just starting to recharge to the downside, all suggesting at least a slight bearish bias over the coming days. A bearish MACD that is now below it’s zeroline and a lack of historical support immediately below the market also points to slightly lower prices over the near-term, however the volume indications are showing the dip being bought already and a near-term support confluence is in the making in the $45k region which is where we could start to nibble on the long side to add to current positions.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $45k for shorter-term upside to the $52k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand following the recent bull run and once again we have the market topping just before a TD 9 signal prints and right at the 200 SMA on some bearish candle formations earlier this week, and now the TD count has flipped to a red (1) on overbought and heavy momentum oscillators and slightly deteriorating volume indications, so our caution from earlier in the week was warranted (and still is). Having said that, we’re expecting a shallower dip than we’ve been used to over the past few months, likely 1 – 4 TD candles into the $44k – $45k area before the bulls step back in heading into April. Granted, there is a decent probability (~30%) that we need one more 9 candle correction into the low-$40k’s before the breakout above $50k materializes, although we would view this as an even better opportunity to BTFD.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $45k for longer-term upside to the $120k area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC is starting to look more bullish than it has during the recent multi-week chopzone/consolidation period as market structure is slowly improving above the flatlining 200 SMA while the shorter-term moving averages continue to rise and the volume indications show early signs of improvement, therefore we’ve moved up our buy levels to reflect a more positive technical outlook. Having said that, candle formations remain very mixed, SCMR signals are all neutral, the momentum oscillators are still stuck in no man’s land, and the TD count still isn’t much help for the time being so we need to stay patient given that the consolidation could drag out for a while longer still.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0045 for shorter-term upside to 0.0052. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
Unfortunately for the near-term XMR/USD bulls we’re heading into a TD (9) sell signal later today on the the daily close while price is stalling in the lower supply area on overbought and heavy momentum oscillators and still not all that impressive volume indications, so it looks like a pullback is likely in the near future. The fact that price is close to breaking back below the 200 SMA and new SCMR support on a bearish candle formation is also not great news for the bulls heading into the weekend, although SCMR signals are still bright green and support is very strong below the $200 level so we’ll start to get active on the long side below there if given the opportunity over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $200 for medium-term upside back to $250. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ETH/BTC
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC has moved back above the 0.070 level over the past several days on bright green SCMR signals that have turned near-term market structure bullish once again while price tries to move above the 100 and 200 SMA’s, all good signs for the bulls moving forward. The slowly improving volume indications and the early green TD count are also positives for the bulls over the coming week, however we are on a TD (4) which means a few days of turbulence is likely before higher prices are achieved (likely up into the 0.077 – 0.078 area before a larger correction materializes).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.070 area for shorter-term upside to the 0.078 level. Longer-term target resides around 0.100.
ETH/USD
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is starting to look toppy around current levels due to the incoming TD (9) sell signal later today that is developing as price is right at a resistance confluence consisting of the slightly bearish 200 SMA, the top of the lower supply area, and previous TD resistance dots, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the near-term. The overbought momentum oscillators and deteriorating volume indications are also warning signs for near-term bulls, however given the current environment we think dips are for buying especially below the key $3000 psychological support level.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $3000 for shorter-term upside to the $3900 area. Longer-term target remains around $12,000.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/BTC
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC is seeing a very nice bounce today off of the local lows on a bright green SCMR signal that is keeping market structure firmly bullish for now, all good signs for the bulls, although the good news stops there considering that we’re still on a bearish TD count (5) on lackluster momentum and volume indications while price is very from technical and historical support, therefore we’ll wait for lower prices to get active on the long side again. The fact that the current rally is stalling right where a bull trap should is also worrying, although the support confluence consisting of the rising 50 SMA, active TD support dots, and the tops of the OTE long zone and upper demand area around 0.00003500 seems like the most logical place for a pullback and reversal, hence we’ll stay patient for that area time being.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00003600 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00005500 area. Longer-term target resides in the 0.00010000 region.
ARRR/USD
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/USDT daily linear chart
ARRR/USDT is looking pretty heavy as we move towards the end of the last week of March considering that volatility is picking up near the highs and around the bottom of the supply area while the momentum oscillators weaken and positive money flow begins to slow, all suggesting a slightly deeper pullback than what we’ve seen so far. Also note that we’re on a red TD (4) count while technical and historical support are nonexistent until $1.80 (with more significant confluence actually around $1.50) so we want to be cautious heading into the weekend but ready to buy weakness at key levels should we get them in the near future.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $1.80 for shorter-term upside to the $2.40 area. Longer-term target resides around $12.00.
Good Luck, Good Trading!