Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 22 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Despite a rather slow news week thus far and technicals that still leave something to be desired for the time being it comes as a bit of a surprise that bitcoin has moved convincingly above the $42k level so early in the week which is certainly a good sign for the bulls with only a few days left in the 60-day cycle. While the unanticipated speed with which this rally has materialized was not expected until later in the week or next weekend, the move down close to $40k yesterday to tag support was a sign that we are still on the right track with regards to price action. Moving forward we’re certainly becoming more bullish at this time, but still want to exercise some caution over the shorter-term due to some technical red flags that we’ll discuss below.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup following the recent rally and we can see that price has been moving higher within an ascending channel ever since the $39k lows from last week, and the recent leg higher has come on mostly bullish candle formations and bright green SCMR signals while the TD count remains favorable for the time being given we’re only on a (3), so the technicals are definitely looking better for the bulls for now. The fact that all of the moving averages are trending higher and the volume indications are improving are also good signs for the bulls moving forward, however resistance below $44k and slightly bearishly divergent momentum oscillators are telling us that a consolidation or retracement is likely before price moves substantially higher.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $41k for shorter-term upside to the $44k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand following the upside move early this week and the most notable signal on the chart is the perfected TD 9 sell signal that is painting today on a wick into the lower supply area that has so far been rejected, which is telling us to stay cautious until the TD count resolves itself. Having said that, shorter-term market structure is improving, SCMR has turned bright green, new SCMR support dots are building around $40.5k, the momentum and volume indications are supportive of the bulls, and price has broken above the 100 SMA today, which is starting to reverse back to the upside to join the 50 SMA, so we’re leaning towards a 1 – 4 candle consolidation/correction during the middle of this week before the bulls get active again heading into the weekend.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $40k for longer-term upside to the $120k area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
After failing to get back above the 0.0050 level over the past several days, XMR/BTC is slowly grinding to the downside as expected on neutral SCMR signals and a new bearish TD count starting today while shorter-term market structure deteriorates for the time being, all suggesting at least a slight bearish bias over the coming days. The recharging momentum oscillators and discouraging volume indications (especially Money Flow which is falling off a cliff) are also signaling some additional near-term weakness, although we like the support confluence in the 0.0044 area to buy the dip if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0044 for shorter-term upside to 0.0050. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is definitely flashing some warning signs for the time being such as the bearish TD (9) count that is materializing with price just below the long-term downtrend line while a potential Adam & Eve top develops as well, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The orange bearish SCMR signal yesterday is also worrisome near-term, as are the lackluster momentum and volume indications, so we’ll wait for further downside before getting active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $165 for medium-term upside back to $200. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC continues its ferocious rally today moving up to new local and regional highs on a large bullish candle formation and bright green SCMR signal while short to medium-term market structure remains favorable and the TD count (5) suggest more upside as well, so the bulls still have some gas left in the tank over the near-term. Having said that, price is now in the OTE short zone while RSI is overbought, MACD is bearishly divergent, and the volume indications leave something to be desired, so we think a local top is likely before 0.00005000 is broken with downside to support into the 0.00003500 area (which we would be buyers of).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.00003500 area for shorter-term upside back to 0.00005000. Longer-term target resides around 0.000100.
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/USDT daily linear chart
ARRR/USDT is back just below the $2 level today following a strong rally over the past 24 hours on a large bullish candle formation and bright green SCMR signal that is keeping market structure firmly bullish while the TD count (3) supports more near-term upside, so the bulls are still in good shape overall. The rising shorter-term moving averages and still strong volume indications are also good signs for the bulls moving forward, however an overbought RSI, a bearishly divergent MACD, and strong historical resistance between $2.00 – $2.20 have us thinking that local top is likely in that region in the near future before a bullish retracement to establish another higher low which we can get more aggressive with if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1.35 for shorter-term upside to the $2.10 area. Longer-term target remains around $12.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
XEQ/BTC had a very nice move to the upside last week as expected but has since stalled out around the 200 SMA on a hodgepodge of candle formations and overbought momentum so we think the bias is slightly to the downside heading into the back half of this week. The falling MACD and still lackluster OBV reading are also signaling some near-term weakness, although support should be strong in the 0.00000450 area due to the rising 50 SMA, OTE long zone, and top of the demand area so that’s where we start to get active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000450 for longer-term target to the 0.00001000 region.
CoinTraderPro CoinMarketCap XEQ/USD daily linear chart
It appears as though XEQ/USD has put in a local top for now and is likely to trade sideways to down over the near-term due to the descending channel that is forming while an overbought RSI reading begins to reverse back to the downside, so we’ll stay patient for lower prices before buying the dip. That said, the support confluence that is developing just below the $0.20 level is still quite attractive so that’s where we’ll begin to nibble on the long side once again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.20 for shorter-term upside to the $0.30 area. Longer-term target resides around $1.20.
Good Luck, Good Trading!