Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 15 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Range-bound volatility continues to be the name of the game for bitcoin and the crypto markets this week as expected, although what was not anticipated was the resilience and fortitude of the bulls at the $38k level over the past 24 hours (which is still an attractive entry from a longer-term perspective). There are also some signs that the fundamental metrics are perhaps improving a bit, which should continue to help stabilize the technicals around current levels, hence we’re becoming more positive on the market with each passing day above the $37k level (which is where multiple local lows reside). That said, macro headwinds are still in play and there is a Fed meeting tomorrow so the possibility remains that a larger selloff materializes before a sustainable uptrend materializes hence we’ll stay patient for lower levels before adding to current positions.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First, we’ll look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technical setup where we can see that price sold off to the $38k support region late yesterday before bouncing back close to the $40k resistance area today where sellers put the kibosh on yet another rally not long ago, so we remain in pretty much the same position that we were in yesterday. The fact that price is still below the mixed moving averages on a hodgepodge of candle formations, an unhelpful TD count, and uncertain market structure also suggests more choppy range-bound action for the time being, however we do have a symmetrical triangle forming that is approaching its apex so some near-term volatility may give us an opportunity to buy around the $37k confluence area before an attempt by the bulls to get back above $40k.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $38k for shorter-term upside to the $42k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand heading into the second half of the week and for now things are looking slightly better for the bulls than they did a few days ago considering that a blue SCMR reversal signal and bullish engulfing candle formation painted yesterday which is being followed up by a bullish hammer-type candle that has flipped the TD count back to green thus maintaining the double bottom structure on the lower time frames, all good news for the bulls. The 50 SMA is also starting to curl back to the upside this week, also good for the bulls, although the resistance confluence around $42k consisting of the falling 100 SMA, old SCMR dots, and bottom of the supply area are likely to precipitate a pullback when/if we get there over the next few weeks.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $38k for longer-term upside to the $120k area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to outperform our expectations for the time being considering that the bulls are already trying to push price above the pennant/triangle formation that we identified yesterday on a bright green SCMR signal that is keeping price above the 200 SMA thus keeping shorter-term market structure increasingly bullish as well, all of which is favoring the bulls moving forward. A reset TD count, improving volume indications, rising shorter-term moving averages, and not yet overbought momentum oscillators also point to a bullish bias over the coming days, however price must get above the 0.0054 level with conviction to shift medium-term structure to bullish so we won’t start to get aggressive on the long side until a breakout above there materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0044 for shorter-term upside to 0.0052. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is now consolidating inside of a symmetrical triangle/bullish pennant pattern for the time being on green SCMR signals and mostly bullish candle formations while shorter-term market structure continues to improve, all suggesting at least a slight bullish bias moving forward. The fact that price is above the 100 SMA while the 50 SMA reverses back to the upside below the market is also good news for the bulls, although the momentum and volume indications leave something to be desired and there remains significant resistance in the $200 – $210 area so price needs to get above that zone for us to get more positive longer-term.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $160 for medium-term upside back to $200. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to move to the downside as expected on bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, and a still bearish TD count while new SCMR resistance starts to build overhead at 0.00030 and short-term market structure takes a turn for the worse, all pointing to lower prices before the bulls step back in. Price is also back below the 50 SMA while the 200 SMA starts to turn down, bad signs for the bulls as well, as are the deteriorating momentum and volume indications, so we’ll stay patient for the support zone between 0.00025 – 0.00026 (and below that 0.00021 – 0.00022) before thinking about getting active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness in the 0.00025 – 0.00026 area for shorter-term upside back to 0.00030. Longer-term target resides around 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT is falling to new local lows today on a bearish candle formation, red SCMR signal, and red TD count (4) while market structure deteriorates and price breaks below the 50 and 100 SMA cross, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The slowly falling 200 SMA and increasingly bearish momentum and volume indications also suggest a near-term downward bias over the course of this week, however strong support below $10 should facilitate a short-term bounce even if the lows ultimately come in the $7 – $8 region (where very strong long-term support exists).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $10 for shorter-term upside to the $13 area. Longer-term target remains around $120.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
XEQ/BTC is starting to look very interesting at this time considering we could be seeing a falling wedge breakout following a capitulation on a bullish hammer reversal candle on a huge bullish MACD divergence, all suggesting that a significant move higher is becoming increasingly likely. The fact that price held the 200 SMA recently, which is still rising, is also good news for the bulls from a medium-term perspective, although patience will likely be a virtue in this one which could give us a final opportunity to buy the dip before much higher prices materialize.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000370 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00000550 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00001000 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinMarketCap XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD is trying to carve out a sustainable low at the top of the long-term demand area on improving momentum and volume indications and less-bad market structure than we’ve seen in a while, all of which are fairly positive signs for the bulls longer-term. Having said that, the 200 SMA is joining the shorter-term moving averages in a downtrend and we still don’t have a higher low to work with so we need to stay cautious at least until the 50 SMA is broken overhead.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.14 for shorter-term upside to the $0.17 area. Longer-term target resides around $1.20.
Good Luck, Good Trading!