Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 10 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following a nice bounce to the upside yesterday on the back of US President Biden’s executive order on cryptocurrency, as well as a risk-on environment in stocks, the BTC price is selling off back below $40k today as expected on continued fears of war and inflation/Fed action. While we remain in buy the dip mode over the near-term due to strong support below the market, we’re also staying cautious from a medium-term perspective given the still worrisome technicals and deteriorating shorter-term fundamentals.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll begin today’s update with a look at the 4-hour chart for a granular view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that the TD 9 sell signal from yesterday was indeed the top of the Biden rally and since then price has been moving lower on a bearish TD count (5), very mixed moving averages, and highly uncertain market structure, all of which suggests more choppy sideways action for the foreseeable future. The fact that the volume indications are moving back to neutral while the momentum oscillators tread water in no man’s land also points to a directionally challenged market moving forward, although we still like the $37k – $38k area for at least a short-term bounce back above $40k.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $38k for shorter-term upside to the $41k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand heading into the weekend and for now the outlook remains highly uncertain considering that SCMR is back to neutral on a bearish candle formation that is below the falling 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages continue to move lower as well, so more medium-term consolidation in the ~$36k – $44k range is likely until further notice. The lackluster momentum and volume indications in addition to the lack of any active SCMR support or resistance dots around the market also suggest more action inside of the range moving forward, hence buying dips and selling rips remains the play while stuck in this area. That said, there is a rather large ascending triangle forming that portends higher prices at the end of the 60-day cycle, another reason to buy dips and accumulate in the mid to high-$30k’s.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $38k for longer-term upside to the $120k area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC is still moving to the downside today following the large spike higher earlier in the week on a bearish orange pivot bar and bearish candle formation that is back below the falling 200 SMA while the momentum and volume indications continue to favor the bears for now, all suggesting lower prices before we find true support. The falling 50 SMA and what is likely to be a new bearish TD count in the next 24 hours also point to some additional downside over the near-term, although a confluence of strong support is building between 0.0039 – 0.0041 so that’s where we’ll try to buy the dip (at least for a short-term bounce back to the upside).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0041 for shorter-term upside to 0.0046. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has moved swiftly lower over the past 24 hours thus sparking a bearish orange SCMR pivot bar on a bearish candle formation that is back below the falling 200 SMA and is close to the 100 SMA as well while the momentum and volume indications take a turn for the worse, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. Market structure also leaves something to be desired longer-term despite a reversal short-term, therefore we’re staying patient for the $150 – $160 region before trying to get active again on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $160 for medium-term upside back to $190. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC has finally seen a minor bounce off of support today thus sparking a blue SCMR reversal signal on a bullish candle formation while the momentum oscillators try to bottom and the volume indications attempt to stabilize, all fairly good news for the bulls moving forward. Conversely, market structure remains bearish, the shorter-term moving averages are still falling, and SCMR continues to paint resistance dots overhead so we’ll stay patient for the 0.063 – 0.064 region that we have been focused on all week.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.064 level for shorter-term upside back to 0.068. Longer-term target resides around 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD bounced higher yesterday with the broader crypto complex but is now headed back to the downside on a neutral SCMR signal and bearish candle formation that is keeping market structure highly uncertain and the descending channel intact, all of which suggests a downward bias over the shorter-term. The still lackluster momentum and volume indications confirm this view moving forward, although a support confluence in the the$2400 area and a potential double bottom in that same region are suggesting that we should be buyers of that level at least for a short-term countertrend bounce higher.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $2400 for shorter-term upside to the $3000 area. Longer-term target remains around $12,000.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC weekly linear chart
We’ll zoom out to the weekly XEQ/BTC chart today to assess the damage following a big spike to the downside yesterday, and for now things still don’t look all that bad considering that the bullish falling wedge is still technically intact and the current candle formation is turning out to be a bullish hammer reversal which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The bullish MACD divergence and almost recharged momentum oscillators also suggest that the bulls are still in the game for now, although weak volume indications and still bearish market structure say that we’re likely to be grinding slowly lower into support for a while before a reversal materializes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000340 for longer-term target to the 0.00001000 region.
CoinTraderPro CoinMarketCap XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD continues to look pretty heavy overall considering that we’re getting a bearish candle formation today that is canceling the bullish candle from yesterday while market structure remains disappointing and the momentum oscillators are still lackluster, so downside remains likely over the shorter-term. Having said that, we still like the $0.10 area for long-term support and thus accumulation therefore we’ll start to get active there if price gets that low.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.10 for shorter-term upside to the $0.20 area. Longer-term target resides around $1.20.
Good Luck, Good Trading!