Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Mars 3 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With tensions between Russia and the rest of the world continuing to escalate heading into the weekend due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, the “safe haven” bid has remained fairly strong for bitcoin despite increasingly worrying technical headwinds. We think this bid is waning though for the time being and is likely to continue to decrease over the coming days due to said technical factors, although we still think that we’re setting up for a nice buy the dip opportunity in the $38 – $40k area over the coming days/few weeks.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First, we’ll look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that a double top has formed in the upper supply area which portends lower prices moving forward, as do the bearish candle formations recently and the still bearish TD count which points to at least another 24 hours of downside before a potential bounce. The fact that the momentum oscillators are just now beginning to recharge while the volume indications begin to favor the sellers also suggests a bearish bias over the upcoming weekend, as does the lack of near-term support below the market, so we’ll stay patient for $40k or below before trying to get active on the long side again.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness to around $40k for shorter-term upside to the $44k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand heading into the weekend and we can see that price has broken back below the lower supply area on a bearish orange pivot bar and bearish candle formation while the TD count signals a confirmed top is likely in the next 24 hours, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the shorter-term. The falling 100 SMA overhead, the now bearish 200 SMA, the mixed momentum oscillators, and lackluster volume indications also point to some troubled waters ahead over the coming days, however a significant support confluence in the $36 – $38k region has us wanting to add to longer-term positions in that area if given the chance.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $38k for longer-term upside to the $120k area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC is looking better than it has in a while considering that price is starting to continue higher following a wedge breakout and retest earlier in the week which is helping shorter-term market structure while the TD count remains bullish for the time being, all fairly good news for the bulls moving forward. The improving momentum and volume indications and active SCMR support dots below the market are also good signs for the bulls for now, however resistance in the 0.0042 area must be conquered with conviction before we can talk about a sustainable, market structure shifting move above 0.0045.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0039 for shorter-term upside to 0.0042. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is starting to look toppy here in the lower supply area despite still green SCMR signals due to some discouraging candle formations recently, an almost bearish TD count (7), and what looks like a potential double top just like in BTC, so the bears are primed to retake control of this market over the weekend. The fact that the momentum oscillators are stalling out in no man’s land while the volume indications begin to roll over also shows the weakness of the bulls right now, hence we’ll move to the sidelines and wait for an opportunity in the support confluence around $150.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $150 for medium-term upside back to $180. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
While DERO/BTC still appears to be in better shape than most altcoins from a technical perspective, it looks like the market is becoming more susceptible to some downside over the near-term due to a recent double top in the lower supply area and a still bearish TD count (3). Also note that price is now back below the flatlined 200 SMA which is acting as resistance while the momentum oscillators chop around in no man’s land and the volume indications suggest sellers are in control, therefore we continue to think that a move down into the 0.00025 – 0.00027 is likely (a dip that we’ll nibble on if even just for a countertrend bounce).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the 0.00027 level for shorter-term upside back to 0.00032. Longer-term target resides around 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT has been treading water around the $12.50 level for almost a week now on a hodgepodge of candle formations and SCMR signals while the TD count remains mixed and market structure is still a mess, all suggesting a directionally challenged market over the near-term. The stagnant momentum oscillators and conflicting volume indications also point to more consolidation around current levels moving forward, although weakness in BTC/USD is likely to drag price down to the $10 support level if it materializes (which we would be buyers of if given the opportunity).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness around and below the $10 level for medium-term upside to the $15 area. Longer-term target remains around $120.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC 3-day linear chart
XEQ/BTC continues to slowly bleed to the downside on mostly bearish candle formations that are keeping short to medium-term market structure firmly bearish while the shorter-term moving averages begin to roll over above the market, all suggesting that more of the same (down) is likely over the coming days. The lackluster volume indications also point to a challenging environment for the bulls moving forward, however an oversold RSI, a bullishly divergent MACD, and a falling wedge formation near long-term support all have us wanting to add to longer-term positions in the 0.00000350 area if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000350 for longer-term target to the 0.00001000 region.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD has just broken below its previous regional and cycle lows today on a bearish candle formation that has confirmed still bearish short to medium-term market structure while the 100 SMA moves below the 200 SMA for the first time this cycle, all of which suggests lower prices moving forward. The not yet recharged RSI, a bearish MACD, and a flatlined OBV also tell us that the bears are still in control, although long-term support comes in around $0.10 so that’s where we’ll start to watch for signs of a potential bottom.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target resides around $1.20.
Good Luck, Good Trading!