Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Feb 24 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With the globe on the brink of war following Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, it comes as no surprise that risk assets of all kinds have been under pressure to the downside this week, including BTC and the broader crypto complex, although we have seen a nice bounce today off of the sub-$35k regional lows which is actually fairly encouraging considering the still very worrisome global macro outlook. While there is a chance that sustainable lows are now in the process of being established in the mid-$30k’s, hence nibbling for long-term positioning is not a bad idea, we must stay prepared for another shakeout to the downside given that the prevailing trend is lower and global risks remain highly elevated.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that it has been a very volatile day with prices reaching new local lows early in the day but reversing and moving $5000+ higher as we approach the daily close thus sparking a large bullish candle formation on a yellow SCMR breakout candle while the TD count reverses back to a green 1, none of which is really helpful in terms of directionality moving forward. Now active SCMR support below the market, bearish moving averages above the market, and highly mixed momentum and volume indications also suggest that both bulls and bears are likely offsides right now, telling us that a rangy, choppy trade between ~$34k – $40k is likely for the foreseeable future.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also take a look at the daily chart to see how much damage has been done to the medium-term technicals over the past several days and so far we don’t see any major longer-term destruction considering that price has yet to make a lower low and we do see a positive response in the purple demand area today thus sparking a bullish candle formation, so the longer-term outlook remains fairly sanguine all thing considered. It’s also nice to see some bullish momentum and volume signals forming while a blue SCMR reversal signal develops as well, which is certainly good news for the bulls, although all of the moving averages are now falling and market structure remains bearish so the risk of more downside is still certainly on the table hence we need to leave some dry powder ready for lower levels just in case.
Long-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term upside still resides around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC moved down to new local lows earlier today on a red SCMR signal and increasingly bearish market structure while all of the moving averages continue to fall and the momentum and volume indications leave much to be desired, all suggesting that the bears are still in control for now. Having said that, we do see a TD 9 buy signal on the daily chart above and the wick out of the middle of the demand area is a good sign as well, so if the bulls can defend the 0.0038 area over the weekend then we’ll start to get a bit more bullish next week.
Trade Idea: Hold current longs for a short-term target of 0.0042. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD sold off to new local and regional lows today in the low-$130’s on another red SCMR signal and broken and bearish market structure while all of the moving averages continue to fall and SCMR resistance dots remain active overhead, all of which is bad news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the momentum oscillators have not yet fully recharged is also not great for the bulls, however we do see some bullish divergences on a bullish candle formation today while the TD count is within a day of painting a 9 buy signal, hence we are open to the idea of a bottom being very close but we’ll need to see $130 hold over the next several days to be convinced we’re going higher during a time of extreme uncertainty.
Trade Idea: Hold current longs for a bounce back up to the $160 area. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
ETH/BTC has recently settled into a consolidation range around the top of the OTE long zone on a hodgepodge of candle formations, very mixed SCMR signals, unhelpful TD counts, and highly uncertain short to medium-term market structure, all suggesting that neither bulls or bears are in control of this market. The stagnating momentum and volume indications and mixed shorter-term moving averages also point to a directionally challenged market moving forward, although we do see a slight downward bias to our 0.065 buy star over the coming days due to active SCMR resistance dots overhead, price being below the 100 SMA, and macro worries re: Russia/Ukraine.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.065 level. Longer-term target resides around 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD saw a swift selloff down to the $2300 level earlier today on another red SCMR signal that is keeping short and medium-term market structure bearish and heavy while the 200 SMA gets very close to joining the shorter-term moving averages in a downtrend and the momentum oscillators have still not fully recharged, all of which is telling us to stay cautious this weekend. Having said that, a sharp reversal out of the blue demand area recently combined with some positive volume indications and a blue SCMR reversal signal are telling us that there is a good chance that we’ve seen at least a local bottom (although we need to see the $2300 lows hold into next week to get truly bullish).
Trade Idea: Hold current longs for shorter-term upside to the $3000 area. Longer-term target remains around $12,000.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC has been acting surprisingly well over the course of this week considering that price is still above the 100 SMA on a TD 8 count and we have a blue SCMR reversal signal that is also a bullish engulfing candle, and today’s selloff has yet to make new local or regional lows, so perhaps we’re close to the end of this correction despite not even making it to the OTE long zone. That said, still bearish momentum and volume indications are keeping us quite cautious in case of a move below 0.00002500 over the weekend so we’ll stay patient and in buy the dip mode moving forward..
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00002500. Longer-term target remains around 0.0001000.
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/USDT daily linear chart
ARRR/USD bulls are trying desperately to defend the key $1.00 level heading into week’s end but are struggling to do so due to new regional lows today on a red SCMR signal that broke the 50 SMA while the momentum and volume indications remain quite discouraging, all of which points to at least a bit more downside before a sustainable bottom. The falling longer-term moving averages and a TD 8 signal confirm that there is still a bit of room for lower prices, although we like the $0.80 – $0.90 support area for longer-term buys considering the OTE and demand area confluence as well as a possible TD 9 buy signal tomorrow.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.90. Longer-term target resides around $12.
Good Luck, Good Trading!