Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Feb 14 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
On this Valentine’s Day Monday neither bulls nor bears appear to be in love with the markets as stocks are stuck in a mixed trade and crypto is generally flat, both of which are a sign of the growing indecision and uncertainty surrounding risk assets during this Fed rate hike cycle. Granted, there has been a small but persistent divergence between tradfi and crypto over the past week or so, although it’s not that convincing and could dissipate in a heartbeat if macro worries come to the forefront again. With that in mind, we’re still leaning slightly to the downside over the near-term but with a buy the dip mentality at key support levels below the market.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First let’s look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price is still holding above the 50 SMA thus keeping market structure intact while the momentum oscillators remain close to recharged, the volume indications are still favoring the bulls, and there is a nice bullish MACD divergence, all of which are telling us to stay positive on the market from a medium-term perspective. That said, mixed candle formations recently, neutral SCMR signals, active SCMR resistance dots overhead, and lackluster price action are suggesting that we stay patient for lower levels over the course of this week, likely down to the $40k region (or $37k if $40k cannot hold).
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $41k for shorter-term upside to the $45k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand and for now there is not a lot of certainty considering that price is riding the falling 50 SMA lower on some small textbook doji candles and neutral SCMR signals while the TD count is on a 4 and the momentum oscillators stabilize in no man’s land, all pointing to consolidation between $40k – $44k over the shorter-term. Longer-term, however, market structure is still improving, the volume indications continue to show accumulation, and there are multiple strong support areas below the market to create a higher low over the next few weeks therefore we’ll stay in buy the dip mode until further notice.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $40k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has now settled into a consolidation range between the falling 100 SMA and the top of the upper demand area on mixed candle formations, neutral SCMR signals, improving shorter-term market structure but still bearish medium-term structure, and lackluster momentum and volume indications, all suggesting more of the same over the course of this week. That said, if price does dip back below the 0.0040 level over the coming days then we’ll have an opportunity to accumulate a bit more at historically favorable levels.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0040 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0044 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
It looks like the XMR/USD bulls are trying to establish a demand zone around the green buy star that we discussed last week while shorter-term market structure continues to improve and the volume indications are still slightly positive, so we continue to lean towards a higher low moving forward which would be good news for the bulls heading into Spring. Having said that, the current candle formations are mixed, SCMR is neutral, the TD count is bearish for now, and the momentum oscillators leave something to be desired, so we’ll stay on the sidelines until/unless dips into the $160 area materialize (which we would be longer-term buyers of).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $160 for shorter-term upside to the $200 area. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
ETH/BTC is looking pretty heavy coming into this week considering that price is moving lower on some discouraging 3-day candle formations and red SCMR signals while the TD count flips back to bearish and SCMR resistance dots continue to build overhead, all suggesting lower prices before the bulls get active once again. The lackluster momentum and volume indications also point to a challenging environment for the bulls this week, however we are expecting a higher low in the 0.065 region on some bullish divergences later in the week, a move that we would be buyers of for a bounce back above 0.070 later this month.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.066 level with a shorter-term target of 0.074. Longer-term target resides around 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is trying to find support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level after a four candle TD correction while the volume indications still favor the bulls and shorter-term market structure continues to improve, decent news for the bulls moving forward. That said, the shorter-term moving averages continue to fall, longer-term market structure is still firmly bearish, the momentum oscillators are stuck in no man’s land, and there isn’t much in the way of historical support until the $2400 area which is where we’ll wait for before getting active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $2500 level with shorter-term upside to $3200. Longer-term target remains around $12,000.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC has seen a very nice move higher over the course of the past week but now appears to be in a short-term topping process considering we got a TD 9 sell signal yesterday inside of the lower supply area on bearish volume divergences and very overbought momentum oscillators, all suggesting that a pullback is likely in the near future. Granted, a spike up to the 0.00004200 area is possible before the correction materializes, however we think it’s wise to start taking profits now in order to try to reload at the support confluence in the 0.00002400 area.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00002500 for medium-term upside to the 0.00004200 area. Longer-term target remains around 0.0001000.
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/USDT daily linear chart
ARRR/USDT is also looking pretty toppy for the time being considering we had a TD 9 sell signal last weekend inside of the lower supply area on overbought momentum oscillators and discouraging volume indications, all pointing to a corrective phase in the not too distant future. That said, the 50 SMA is starting to curl upward right inside of the OTE long zone which is where we’ll get interested in adding to longer-term positions.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $1.00 for medium-term upside to the $1.90 area. Longer-term target resides around $12.
Good Luck, Good Trading!