Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following a good weekend of nice upside for the crypto markets, prices are making news highs today on positive technicals and news that KPMG Canada has added BTC and ETH to their corporate treasury. Also, clarity regarding Tesla’s bitcoin position was revealed today which was even more impetus for the bulls to keep prices bid despite being at significant resistance on very overbought short-term momentum conditions. While we continue to think that a pullback to the $40k region is likely in the near future, we also still think that buying the dip for another leg higher later in the month makes sense moving forward.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price is at the top of the intermediate-term supply area on increasingly bearish candle formations and a new TD 9 sell signal while the momentum oscillators are very overbought and MACD is flashing a bearish divergence, all suggesting that we’ve likely seen the local highs around $44.5k and are now due for a retest of support at lower levels. The most obvious spot to rebuy on weakness is the green star where the top of the OTE long zone and the now rising shorter-term moving averages are converging around $39.4k, however there is the possibility that the bulls get front-ran again at the 38.2% Fibonacci level which is at $41.3k so we’ll be watching that level closely as well as price moves lower over the next few days.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $41k for shorter-term upside to the $47k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that price has moved up to the $44k area on bright green SCMR signals, mostly bullish candle formations, improving market structure, a still bullish TD 5 count, and rising momentum and volume indications, all quite good news for the bulls moving forward. New SCMR support around $41k and a lack of resistance until the $47k area are also favorable signs for the bulls, although a shallow pullback to test support and reset near-term momentum makes sense before tackling those higher levels down the road.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $40k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to march higher following the wedge breakout last week and today we have a bright green SCMR signal on a bullish candle formation that is close to breaking out to new local highs on a bullish TD 5 count, all of which points to continuation to the upside over the near-term. The still quite favorable momentum and volume indications and a lack of real resistance until the 0.0044 – 0.0045 area are also signs that higher prices are likely before a pullback, although we do think one is coming in that region so caution is warranted in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0040 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0044 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD continues to move to the upside on bright green SCMR signals, bullish candle formations, a still favorable TD count (5), and improving momentum and volume indications, so it looks like there is some room left in this rally before the bears get active once again. The middle of the OTE short zone and falling 100 SMA should meet around when we get a TD 9 sell signal, which happens to be around the psychologically significant $200 level, which is where we think a pullback begins to materialize later in the week.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $160 for shorter-term upside to the $200 area. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC 3-day linear chart
DERO/BTC looks like it has finally put in a sustainable bottom in the 0.00018 area on multiple bullish momentum and volume divergences while SCMR flips to bright green on the recent move up and the TD count has flipped to bullish as well and is still very early, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that price is back above the still rising 100 SMA while the 200 SMA continues to move higher as well is also positive for the bulls, hence we think higher prices are likely moving forward, possible up to the 0.00040 area if the 50 SMA at 0.00031 is broken over the next few days.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.00022 level with a shorter-term target of 0.00040. Longer-term target resides around 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT 3-day linear chart
DERO/USDT has quickly moved up to the 100 SMA around the $12 level over the past few days on large bullish candle formations and a bright green SCMR signal today while the TD count is freshly bullish (3) and market structure is improving, so the bulls finally have something to work with moving forward. That being said, resistance is very stiff in the $14 – $15 area which is not that far off from where we are right now so we’ll start to get cautious as price creeps higher with our sights set to rebuy below $10.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $10 level with shorter-term upside to $14. Longer-term upside remains around $120.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC 3-day linear chart
ARRR/BTC is finally starting to wake up from its multi-month slumber to start this week thus sparking a still small but bullish candle formation while price remains firmly inside of the long-term demand area and momentum is fully recharged, so it’s definitely time to start paying attention to this one. The massive MACD divergence is also a good sign for the bulls longer-term, however OBV is still falling and the moving averages remain highly mixed so we think it will be a slow slog to the upside moving forward, if not simply more consolidation before a sustainable move higher materializes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00002000 for medium-term upside to the 0.00006000 area. Longer-term target remains around 0.0002000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD is looking better than it has in a while coming into this week considering that we have a decent double bottom to work with in the long-term demand area and now price is starting to move higher on still small but more bullish candle formations while the momentum and volume indications improve for the first time in months, all positive signs for the bulls longer-term. That said, price action still isn’t all that convincing so we need to stay patient in case of more consolidation over the shorter-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.75 for medium-term upside to the $1.30 area. Longer-term target resides around $24.
Good Luck, Good Trading!