Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
On a fairly slow news day for both crypto and tradfi it’s nice to see BTC continue to drift higher thus pulling most of the space up with it despite a relatively flat trade in the US equities markets. This means that the technicals remain in control and are still leaning slightly bullish over the very near-term, however we’re expecting some downside volatility a bit later in the week and at slightly higher prices, a dip that we’ll be ready to buy if given the opportunity.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin this first day of February with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that things are a bit of a mess right now considering there are two potential patterns at play: an ascending triangle and a rising wedge. If this is an ascending triangle then we should see price spike up into the $40k – $42k range in the near future where a local top is likely. If this is a rising wedge then we’ll see a slow grind up to the $40k region where a pullback is likely to materialize. Either way, it appears as though the $40k – $42k area is where we should be selling in order to try to buy the next dip into the mid to high-$30k’s, all of which is being supported by the momentum and volume indications for the time being.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $36k for shorter-term upside to the $40k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart for a slightly longer-term view of the technicals where we can see that price is very close to the top of the descending channel on a TD 8 count, a small but bearish candle formation, a neutral SCMR signal, and still bearish market structure, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the coming week or two. The falling shorter-term moving averages and active resistance dots overhead also suggest limited near-term upside and the potential for a dip in the near future, although improving volume indications and a developing support confluence around $36k are making us want to buy the dip back down to that region when/if we get it moving forward.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $36k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has been breaking down to new local, regional, and cycle lows over the past few days on bearish candles, red SCMR signals, a still firmly bearish TD count despite last week’s 9, newly broken market structure, falling moving averages, and deteriorating volume indications, all of which confirm that we must stay on the sidelines until there are signs of a bottom. Lack of near-term support and a not yet fully recharged RSI are also suggesting that price needs to move even lower to find a sustainable bottom, so the next area of interest for us is in the 0.0034 – 0.0036 region which is where we bottomed in Jan/Feb of 2021.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD is flirting with disaster this week considering that price is riding the 200 SMA and top of the demand area on red SCMR signals, a bearish TD count, still bearish market structure, and a now falling 50 SMA, all pointing to a breakdown to new lows in the not too distant future. Having said that, still decent volume indications and almost recharged momentum oscillators are increasing our interest in buying after the next dip when we see some early signs of reversal, which at this time we expect to materialize in the $100 – $120 area.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC didn’t quite make it all the way down to the 0.063 level as we were hoping last week before bouncing fairly strong to the upside over the past few days on some bullish candles that have helped stabilize medium-term market structure, and now we have a nice bright green SCMR signal and a green TD 5 count, all suggesting some additional near-term upside over the course of this week. The improving momentum and volume indications and a potential break back above the 200 SMA today are also pointing to higher prices over the near-term, likely up to the resistance confluence in the 0.075 – 0.077 region.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.066 level with a longer-term target of 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has managed to carve out a short-term bottom and subsequent minor uptrend over the past several days on some fairly bullish looking candle formations and a still bullish TD count while the momentum and volume indications all pick up steam to the upside, so it looks like there is a bit more juice in this move before the bears return to action. The lack of real resistance immediately overhead also suggests slightly higher prices over the near-term, although not too much considering that there is a confluence building right around the psychologically significant $3000 level (which is where we’re likely to see sellers get active once again).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $2500 level with longer-term upside to around $12,000.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
XEQ/BTC continues to tread water around the longer-term support line that we drew months ago and inside of the upper demand area on a hodgepodge of candle formations and still bearish market structure while the moving averages continue to move lower, all of which is telling us to move to the sidelines given we have been fairly active buyers on the way down. The stagnant momentum and volume indications are also a sign that we should ne neutral moving forward, hence we’ll wait for signs of a reversal out of the doldrums before adding to current positions.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around 0.00002000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD has flatlined in no man’s land on small and mixed candle formations, still bearish market structure, and lackluster momentum and volume indications while the shorter-term moving averages continue to fall overhead, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. Having said that, the $0.10 area has been long-term support for the project since early last year so that’s where we’ll watch for signs of a sustainable bottom (and potential long-term buy zone).
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around $2.40.
Good Luck, Good Trading!