Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Jan 28 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With stocks down on continued fears of Fed tightening it’s nice to see bitcoin stabilizing in the mid-$30k’s, likely due in part to Russian President Vladamir Putin saying that he is open to establishing bitcoin mining operations in the country, although there are still many technical deficiencies on the charts that need to be resolved before we can start moving sustainably higher in price. Given that we expect the market to remain range-bound through the upcoming weekend, we’ll stick to the plan of buying dips into the $34k region and selling rips between $38k – $40k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We first want to look at the 4-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price has popped back above the falling 50 SMA recently on a bullish candle formation and bullish TD 6 count while market structure slowly improves, fairly encouraging signs for the bulls over the shorter-term. The momentum and volume indications are also looking better than they did earlier in the week, however the longer-term moving averages continue to fall and supply area resistance overhead will be a struggle for the bulls, hence we’ll continue to sell rips to the upside between $38 – $40k.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $34k for shorter-term upside to the $40k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand and right now things are a bit of a mess considering that price is treading water in the middle of a descending channel on mixed candle formations, red SCMR signals, still bearish market structure, and falling shorter-term moving averages, so caution remains warranted until further notice. The momentum and volume indications also aren’t that helpful for the time being, although it looks like support is building at the top of the demand area so we’ll use wicks down into the low-$30k’s to nibble some longer-term buys at relatively attractive levels historically.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $34k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has certainly been disappointing from a performance standpoint once again as price has slipped all the way back down into the demand confluence on almost exclusively bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, and a still bearish TD count despite a 9 earlier in the week, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The active SCMR resistance dots overhead, the falling moving averages, and the still discouraging momentum and volume indications also don’t bode well for the bulls, so we’ll move back to neutral given we’ve already been active in the 0.0040 area.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target resides around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD continues to tread water below the 150 level on mixed candle formations, red SCMR signals, and a still bearish TD count, again despite a 9 buy signal earlier in the week, so we don’t have much confidence in the bulls at this time. The fact that the shorter-term moving averages are starting to pick up steam to the downside while the momentum and volume indications leave much to be desired is also not great for the bulls moving forward, so we’ll move to neutral considering we’ve been active in the $155 area as previously discussed.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term upside resides around the $1200 level.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
ETH/BTC has moved down to the 0.065 region over the past several days on bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, still bearish shorter-term market structure, and a very discouraging TD count considering a 9 buy signal early in the week, all suggesting that the bias is still to the downside moving forward. Very worrisome volume indications and lackluster momentum oscillators are also pointing to a choppy to slightly bearish environment over the coming days, however the 0.063 level has a lot of support confluence developing so that is the next level we’ll be interested in buying for longer-term holding.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.063 level with a longer-term target of 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has been consolidating just above the old TD support line on very mixed candle formations, a mixed TD count, bearish short to medium-term market structure and still lackluster momentum and volume indications, all pointing to more of the same over the shorter-term. That said, it is looking increasingly likely that support at lower levels needs to be tested before a sustainable reversal hence we’re moving our buy level down to the $2000 area where the top of the longer-term demand area resides.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $2000 level with longer-term upside to around $12,000.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC 3-day linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to slowly grind lower on a hodgepodge of candle formations, red SCMR signals, still bearish market structure, and a red TD count (4) all while the volume indications continue to show more sellers than buyers, all suggesting that we still have more downside before a reversal materializes. That said, there is still a massive MACD divergence, RSI is getting closer to fully recharged, and there is a nice support confluence at the rising 200 SMA and bottom of the OTE long zone around 0.00015 so that’s the next level we’ll be watching in terms of trying to add to longer-term positions.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.00015 level for longer-term upside to around 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT 3-day linear chart
DERO/USDT is currently riding the 200 SMA and the TD risk line on slightly improving volume indications and bullishly divergent momentum oscillators, decent news for the bulls moving forward. However, mostly bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, a bearish TD count, and bearish short to medium-term market structure suggest that the $4 – $6 range might be in play soon especially if BTC starts to move markedly lower over the upcoming week so we’re moving our buy levels lower for the time being.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $6 for medium-term upside to the $12 area and longer-term upside to $120.
Good Luck, Good Trading!